Bengals vs Titans Prediction — NFL Week 15, Dec 15, 2024

No winner call was locked for Bengals vs Titans before kickoff.

Cincinnati Bengals

9-8

Modelpredicted

30 – 25

Sun, Dec 15, 1:00 PM ET

Nissan Stadium · 52° · 12 mph wind

Final

Tennessee Titans

3-14

MarketSpread CIN -6Total 46.5Moneyline CIN -250 · TEN +205

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The pick

backtest · not locked

Win chance

63%Cincinnati BengalsSolid

No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.

Model margin

CIN by 4.4market CIN by 6

Model total

55.0 pointsmarket 46.5

Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.

Why the model calls it

The model has Cincinnati Bengals at 63% to win, with the market at CIN by 6.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Will Levis starting for Tennessee Titans, and the model prices that in.
CIN has the advantage in passing: CIN passing ranks #7, TEN defends it at #19; the other way TEN #29 into CIN's #15.
CIN has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: CIN third-down conversion ranks #5, TEN defends it at #22; the other way TEN #21 into CIN's #23.
Form: CIN has the better last five games by 16.2 points a game (TEN -7.6, CIN +8.6).
Home field is with TEN, which the pick has to overcome.

ContextThe model makes it CIN by 4.4 against a market CIN by 6: 1.6 points of daylight in TEN's favour. The model's total is 55.0 against a line of 46.5: 8.5 points above it. The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.

Matchup context: who has the advantage

Model CIN by 4.4 · market CIN by 6

ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.

Passing game

CIN

Clear advantage

CIN passing ranks #7, TEN defends it at #19; the other way TEN #29 into CIN's #15.

Rushing game

CIN

Slight advantage

CIN rushing ranks #18, TEN defends it at #22; the other way TEN #29 into CIN's #27.

Third down & red zone

CIN

Slight advantage

CIN third-down conversion ranks #5, TEN defends it at #22; the other way TEN #21 into CIN's #23.

Big plays

TEN

Slight advantage

TEN explosive rush rate ranks #12, CIN defends it at #17; the other way CIN #25 into TEN's #12.

Pass protection & rush

Even

CIN sack rate ranks #19, TEN defends it at #24; the other way TEN #26 into CIN's #27.

Ball security

CIN

Clear advantage

CIN turnovers / game ranks #17, TEN defends it at #22; the other way TEN #32 into CIN's #10.

Form (last 5)

CIN

Clear advantage

TEN −7.6 per game over the last five, CIN +8.6.

Market

CIN

Clear advantage

Consensus has CIN by 6; the model says CIN by 4.4.

the market, for comparison

Where the lines sit

3,893 NFL games since 2012

Marginmarket CIN by 6 · model CIN by 4.4

Mkt CIN 6

Model CIN 4.4

← CIN by 28tieTEN by 28 →

2.0% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 6, a number 6.7% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).

Totalmarket 46.5 · model 55.0

Mkt 46.5

Model 55.0

20 pts4672 pts

20.4% of NFL games finish between 46.5 and 55.0. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.

The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.

Bengals vs Titans Prediction — NFL Week 15, Dec 15, 2024

The pickiThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.

Why the model calls itiThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.

Matchup context: who has the advantageiWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.

Where the lines sitiWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.

Bengals vs Titans Prediction — NFL Week 15, Dec 15, 2024

The pickiThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.

Why the model calls itiThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.

Matchup context: who has the advantageiWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.

Where the lines sitiWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.

The pick

Why the model calls it

Matchup context: who has the advantage

Where the lines sit

The pick

Why the model calls it

Matchup context: who has the advantage

Where the lines sit