The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
85%Baltimore RavensStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
BAL by 14.2market BAL by 16.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
42.1 pointsmarket 43.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Baltimore Ravens at 85% to win, with the market at BAL by 16.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Tommy DeVito starting for New York Giants, and the model prices that in.
BAL has the advantage in passing: BAL passing ranks #1, NYG defends it at #30; the other way NYG #31 into BAL's #8.
BAL has the advantage in big plays: BAL explosive pass rate ranks #1, NYG defends it at #28; the other way NYG #31 into BAL's #20.
Rest: BAL has 7 more days since its last game (NYG 7d, BAL 14d).
Form: BAL has the better last five games by 25.8 points a game (NYG -9.2, BAL +16.6).
Home field is with NYG, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it BAL by 14.2 against a market BAL by 16.5: 2.3 points of daylight in NYG's favour. The model's total is 42.1 against a line of 43.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model BAL by 14.2 · market BAL by 16.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
BAL
Clear advantage
BAL passing ranks #1, NYG defends it at #30; the other way NYG #31 into BAL's #8.
Rushing game
BAL
Clear advantage
BAL rushing ranks #1, NYG defends it at #17; the other way NYG #23 into BAL's #8.
Third down & red zone
BAL
Clear advantage
BAL third-down conversion ranks #1, NYG defends it at #20; the other way NYG #27 into BAL's #17.
Big plays
BAL
Clear advantage
BAL explosive pass rate ranks #1, NYG defends it at #28; the other way NYG #31 into BAL's #20.
Pass protection & rush
BAL
Clear advantage
BAL sack rate ranks #4, NYG defends it at #5; the other way NYG #22 into BAL's #6.
Ball security
BAL
Clear advantage
BAL turnovers / game ranks #4, NYG defends it at #28; the other way NYG #22 into BAL's #25.
Form (last 5)
BAL
Clear advantage
NYG −9.2 per game over the last five, BAL +16.6.
Market
BAL
Clear advantage
Consensus has BAL by 16.5; the model says BAL by 14.2.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket BAL by 16.5 · model BAL by 14.2
Mkt BAL 16.5
Model BAL 14.2
← BAL by 28tieNYG by 28 →
1.8% of NFL games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 43.5 · model 42.1
Mkt 43.5
Model 42.1
20 pts4672 pts
3.5% of NFL games finish between 43.5 and 42.1. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
