The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
56%Dallas CowboysLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
DAL by 2.2market CIN by 5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
63.5 pointsmarket 51
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Dallas Cowboys at 56% to win, with the market at CIN by 5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Cooper Rush starting for Dallas Cowboys, and the model prices that in.
Counterpoint: passing favours CIN. CIN passing ranks #7, DAL defends it at #16; the other way DAL #30 into CIN's #15. The pick still lands on DAL because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: DAL has 3 more days since its last game (DAL 11d, CIN 8d).
Form: CIN has the better last five games by 14.0 points a game (DAL -5.4, CIN +8.6).
Home field is with DAL, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it DAL by 2.2 against a market CIN by 5: 7.2 points of daylight in DAL's favour. The model's total is 63.5 against a line of 51: 12.5 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model DAL by 2.2 · market CIN by 5
ⓘMost of these areas favor CIN, but the model still picks DAL. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
CIN
Clear advantage
CIN passing ranks #7, DAL defends it at #16; the other way DAL #30 into CIN's #15.
Rushing game
CIN
Slight advantage
CIN rushing ranks #18, DAL defends it at #31; the other way DAL #27 into CIN's #27.
Third down & red zone
CIN
Clear advantage
CIN red-zone touchdown rate ranks #5, DAL defends it at #32; the other way DAL #31 into CIN's #30.
Big plays
=
Even
CIN explosive pass rate ranks #26, DAL defends it at #22; the other way DAL #25 into CIN's #11.
Pass protection & rush
DAL
Clear advantage
DAL sack rate ranks #9, CIN defends it at #27; the other way CIN #19 into DAL's #2.
Ball security
CIN
Slight advantage
CIN turnovers / game ranks #17, DAL defends it at #13; the other way DAL #28 into CIN's #10.
Form (last 5)
CIN
Clear advantage
DAL −5.4 per game over the last five, CIN +8.6.
Market
CIN
Clear advantage
Consensus has CIN by 5; the model says DAL by 2.2.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket CIN by 5 · model DAL by 2.2
Mkt CIN 5
Model DAL 2.2
← CIN by 28tieDAL by 28 →
18.8% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 5, a number 4.0% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 51 · model 63.5
Mkt 51
Model 63.5
20 pts4672 pts
19.6% of NFL games finish between 51 and 63.5. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
