The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
61%Tennessee TitansSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
TEN by 3.9market TEN by 3
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
48.3 pointsmarket 40
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Tennessee Titans at 61% to win, with the market at TEN by 3.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Mac Jones starting for Jacksonville Jaguars, and the model prices that in.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours JAX. JAX sack rate ranks #6, TEN defends it at #24; the other way TEN #26 into JAX's #29. The pick still lands on TEN because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with TEN, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it TEN by 3.9 against a market TEN by 3: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 48.3 against a line of 40: 8.3 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model TEN by 3.9 · market TEN by 3
ⓘMost of these areas favor JAX, but the model still picks TEN. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
=
Even
TEN passing ranks #29, JAX defends it at #32; the other way JAX #21 into TEN's #19.
Rushing game
JAX
Slight advantage
JAX rushing ranks #13, TEN defends it at #22; the other way TEN #29 into JAX's #24.
Third down & red zone
JAX
Slight advantage
JAX red-zone touchdown rate ranks #10, TEN defends it at #24; the other way TEN #24 into JAX's #19.
Big plays
=
Even
TEN explosive rush rate ranks #12, JAX defends it at #20; the other way JAX #10 into TEN's #12.
Pass protection & rush
JAX
Clear advantage
JAX sack rate ranks #6, TEN defends it at #24; the other way TEN #26 into JAX's #29.
Ball security
=
Even
TEN turnovers / game ranks #32, JAX defends it at #32; the other way JAX #24 into TEN's #22.
Form (last 5)
JAX
Clear advantage
TEN −7.6 per game over the last five, JAX −0.8.
Market
TEN
Slight advantage
Consensus has TEN by 3; the model says TEN by 3.9.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket TEN by 3 · model TEN by 3.9
Mkt TEN 3
Model TEN 3.9
← JAX by 28tieTEN by 28 →
No whole-number margin falls between 3 and 3.9, so the two numbers differ only on a push at 3. The market is on 3, a number 14.5% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 40 · model 48.3
Mkt 40
Model 48.3
20 pts4672 pts
23.3% of NFL games finish between 40 and 48.3. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
