The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
59%Baltimore RavensLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
BAL by 3.1market BAL by 3
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
52.6 pointsmarket 50
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Baltimore Ravens at 59% to win, with the market at BAL by 3.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours PHI. PHI turnovers / game ranks #2, BAL defends it at #25; the other way BAL #4 into PHI's #2. The pick still lands on BAL because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with BAL, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it BAL by 3.1 against a market BAL by 3: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 52.6 against a line of 50: 2.6 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model BAL by 3.1 · market BAL by 3
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
PHI passing ranks #6, BAL defends it at #8; the other way BAL #1 into PHI's #2.
Rushing game
=
Even
PHI rushing ranks #4, BAL defends it at #8; the other way BAL #1 into PHI's #1.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
PHI third-down conversion ranks #10, BAL defends it at #17; the other way BAL #1 into PHI's #5.
Big plays
=
Even
PHI explosive pass rate ranks #6, BAL defends it at #20; the other way BAL #1 into PHI's #1.
Pass protection & rush
BAL
Clear advantage
BAL sack rate ranks #4, PHI defends it at #10; the other way PHI #31 into BAL's #6.
Ball security
PHI
Clear advantage
PHI turnovers / game ranks #2, BAL defends it at #25; the other way BAL #4 into PHI's #2.
Form (last 5)
=
Even
BAL +16.6 per game over the last five, PHI +15.0.
Market
BAL
Slight advantage
Consensus has BAL by 3; the model says BAL by 3.1.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket BAL by 3 · model BAL by 3.1
Mkt BAL 3
Model BAL 3.1
← PHI by 28tieBAL by 28 →
The two numbers sit together; the disagreement is under half a point. The market is on 3, a number 14.5% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 50 · model 52.6
Mkt 50
Model 52.6
20 pts4672 pts
6.1% of NFL games finish between 50 and 52.6. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
