The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
53%Jacksonville JaguarsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
JAX by 0.9market HOU by 3.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
48.1 pointsmarket 44.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Jacksonville Jaguars at 53% to win, with the market at HOU by 3.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with C.J. Stroud starting for Houston Texans, and the model prices that in.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours HOU. HOU turnovers / game ranks #13, JAX defends it at #32; the other way JAX #24 into HOU's #4. The pick still lands on JAX because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: JAX has 7 more days since its last game (JAX 14d, HOU 7d).
Home field is with JAX, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it JAX by 0.9 against a market HOU by 3.5: 4.4 points of daylight in JAX's favour. The model's total is 48.1 against a line of 44.5: 3.6 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model JAX by 0.9 · market HOU by 3.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor HOU, but the model still picks JAX. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
HOU
Clear advantage
HOU passing ranks #22, JAX defends it at #32; the other way JAX #21 into HOU's #3.
Rushing game
HOU
Slight advantage
HOU rushing ranks #25, JAX defends it at #24; the other way JAX #13 into HOU's #3.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
HOU third-down conversion ranks #18, JAX defends it at #26; the other way JAX #22 into HOU's #3.
Big plays
=
Even
HOU explosive pass rate ranks #21, JAX defends it at #32; the other way JAX #12 into HOU's #16.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
HOU sack rate ranks #30, JAX defends it at #29; the other way JAX #6 into HOU's #3.
Ball security
HOU
Clear advantage
HOU turnovers / game ranks #13, JAX defends it at #32; the other way JAX #24 into HOU's #4.
Form (last 5)
JAX
Slight advantage
JAX −0.8 per game over the last five, HOU −3.4.
Market
HOU
Clear advantage
Consensus has HOU by 3.5; the model says JAX by 0.9.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket HOU by 3.5 · model JAX by 0.9
Mkt HOU 3.5
Model JAX 0.9
← HOU by 28tieJAX by 28 →
11.6% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 44.5 · model 48.1
Mkt 44.5
Model 48.1
20 pts4672 pts
10.8% of NFL games finish between 44.5 and 48.1. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
