The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
56%Baltimore RavensLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
BAL by 1.9market BAL by 3
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
47.7 pointsmarket 51
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Baltimore Ravens at 56% to win, with the market at BAL by 3.
BAL has the advantage in big plays: BAL explosive rush rate ranks #2, LAC defends it at #21; the other way LAC #26 into BAL's #1.
BAL has the advantage in rushing: BAL rushing ranks #1, LAC defends it at #7; the other way LAC #17 into BAL's #8.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours LAC. LAC turnovers / game ranks #3, BAL defends it at #25; the other way BAL #4 into LAC's #9. The pick still lands on BAL because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: BAL has the better last five games by 14.4 points a game (LAC +2.2, BAL +16.6).
Home field is with LAC, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it BAL by 1.9 against a market BAL by 3: 1.1 points of daylight in LAC's favour. The model's total is 47.7 against a line of 51: 3.3 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model BAL by 1.9 · market BAL by 3
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
BAL
Slight advantage
BAL passing ranks #1, LAC defends it at #6; the other way LAC #15 into BAL's #8.
Rushing game
BAL
Clear advantage
BAL rushing ranks #1, LAC defends it at #7; the other way LAC #17 into BAL's #8.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
BAL red-zone touchdown rate ranks #1, LAC defends it at #2; the other way LAC #20 into BAL's #14.
Big plays
BAL
Clear advantage
BAL explosive rush rate ranks #2, LAC defends it at #21; the other way LAC #26 into BAL's #1.
Pass protection & rush
BAL
Clear advantage
BAL sack rate ranks #4, LAC defends it at #9; the other way LAC #23 into BAL's #6.
Ball security
LAC
Clear advantage
LAC turnovers / game ranks #3, BAL defends it at #25; the other way BAL #4 into LAC's #9.
Form (last 5)
BAL
Clear advantage
LAC +2.2 per game over the last five, BAL +16.6.
Market
BAL
Slight advantage
Consensus has BAL by 3; the model says BAL by 1.9.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket BAL by 3 · model BAL by 1.9
Mkt BAL 3
Model BAL 1.9
← BAL by 28tieLAC by 28 →
2.2% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 3, a number 14.5% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 51 · model 47.7
Mkt 51
Model 47.7
20 pts4672 pts
7.6% of NFL games finish between 51 and 47.7. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
