The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
51%Seattle SeahawksLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
SEA by 0.5market ARI by 1
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
46.4 pointsmarket 46.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Seattle Seahawks at 51% to win, with the market at ARI by 1.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Geno Smith starting for Seattle Seahawks, and the model prices that in.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours ARI. ARI sack rate ranks #5, SEA defends it at #14; the other way SEA #24 into ARI's #17. The pick still lands on SEA because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: ARI has 7 more days since its last game (SEA 7d, ARI 14d).
Home field is with SEA, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it SEA by 0.5 against a market ARI by 1: 1.5 points of daylight in SEA's favour. The model's total is 46.4 against a line of 46.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model SEA by 0.5 · market ARI by 1
ⓘMost of these areas favor ARI, but the model still picks SEA. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
=
Even
SEA passing ranks #20, ARI defends it at #24; the other way ARI #11 into SEA's #11.
Rushing game
ARI
Slight advantage
ARI rushing ranks #8, SEA defends it at #16; the other way SEA #24 into ARI's #26.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
SEA third-down conversion ranks #20, ARI defends it at #28; the other way ARI #8 into SEA's #10.
Big plays
=
Even
SEA explosive pass rate ranks #17, ARI defends it at #13; the other way ARI #20 into SEA's #8.
Pass protection & rush
ARI
Clear advantage
ARI sack rate ranks #5, SEA defends it at #14; the other way SEA #24 into ARI's #17.
Ball security
SEA
Slight advantage
SEA turnovers / game ranks #16, ARI defends it at #23; the other way ARI #20 into SEA's #15.
Form (last 5)
ARI
Slight advantage
SEA 0.0 per game over the last five, ARI +2.8.
Market
=
Even
Consensus has ARI by 1; the model says SEA by 0.5.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket ARI by 1 · model SEA by 0.5
Mkt ARI 1
Model SEA 0.5
← ARI by 28tieSEA by 28 →
0.3% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 1, a number 4.5% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 46.5 · model 46.4
Mkt 46.5
Model 46.4
20 pts4672 pts
Model and market agree on the total to within half a point. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
