The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
74%Washington CommandersStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
WSH by 8.5market WSH by 10.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
51.2 pointsmarket 45
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Washington Commanders at 74% to win, with the market at WSH by 10.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Cooper Rush starting for Dallas Cowboys, and the model prices that in.
WSH has the advantage in rushing: WSH rushing ranks #5, DAL defends it at #31; the other way DAL #27 into WSH's #28.
WSH has the advantage in passing: WSH passing ranks #5, DAL defends it at #16; the other way DAL #30 into WSH's #18.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours DAL. DAL sack rate ranks #9, WSH defends it at #8; the other way WSH #20 into DAL's #2. The pick still lands on WSH because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: WSH has 4 more days since its last game (WSH 10d, DAL 6d).
Home field is with WSH, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it WSH by 8.5 against a market WSH by 10.5: 2.0 points of daylight in DAL's favour. The model's total is 51.2 against a line of 45: 6.2 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model WSH by 8.5 · market WSH by 10.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
WSH
Clear advantage
WSH passing ranks #5, DAL defends it at #16; the other way DAL #30 into WSH's #18.
Rushing game
WSH
Clear advantage
WSH rushing ranks #5, DAL defends it at #31; the other way DAL #27 into WSH's #28.
Third down & red zone
WSH
Clear advantage
WSH red-zone touchdown rate ranks #7, DAL defends it at #32; the other way DAL #31 into WSH's #27.
Big plays
=
Even
WSH explosive pass rate ranks #16, DAL defends it at #22; the other way DAL #25 into WSH's #25.
Pass protection & rush
DAL
Clear advantage
DAL sack rate ranks #9, WSH defends it at #8; the other way WSH #20 into DAL's #2.
Ball security
WSH
Clear advantage
WSH turnovers / game ranks #7, DAL defends it at #13; the other way DAL #28 into WSH's #16.
Form (last 5)
WSH
Slight advantage
WSH −1.0 per game over the last five, DAL −5.4.
Market
WSH
Clear advantage
Consensus has WSH by 10.5; the model says WSH by 8.5.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket WSH by 10.5 · model WSH by 8.5
Mkt WSH 10.5
Model WSH 8.5
← DAL by 28tieWSH by 28 →
3.8% of NFL games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 45 · model 51.2
Mkt 45
Model 51.2
20 pts4672 pts
17.2% of NFL games finish between 45 and 51.2. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
