The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
53%New York JetsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
NYJ by 1.0market NYJ by 4
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
39.3 pointsmarket 43
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has New York Jets at 53% to win, with the market at NYJ by 4.
NYJ has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: NYJ third-down conversion ranks #16, IND defends it at #30; the other way IND #19 into NYJ's #16.
NYJ has the advantage in passing: NYJ passing ranks #19, IND defends it at #23; the other way IND #24 into NYJ's #20.
Counterpoint: rushing favours IND. IND rushing ranks #15, NYJ defends it at #20; the other way NYJ #20 into IND's #9. The pick still lands on NYJ because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with NYJ, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it NYJ by 1.0 against a market NYJ by 4: 3.0 points of daylight in IND's favour. The model's total is 39.3 against a line of 43: 3.7 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model NYJ by 1.0 · market NYJ by 4
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
NYJ
Slight advantage
NYJ passing ranks #19, IND defends it at #23; the other way IND #24 into NYJ's #20.
Rushing game
IND
Clear advantage
IND rushing ranks #15, NYJ defends it at #20; the other way NYJ #20 into IND's #9.
Third down & red zone
NYJ
Slight advantage
NYJ third-down conversion ranks #16, IND defends it at #30; the other way IND #19 into NYJ's #16.
Big plays
=
Even
NYJ explosive rush rate ranks #6, IND defends it at #27; the other way IND #7 into NYJ's #6.
Pass protection & rush
NYJ
Slight advantage
NYJ sack rate ranks #14, IND defends it at #23; the other way IND #10 into NYJ's #7.
Ball security
=
Even
IND turnovers / game ranks #29, NYJ defends it at #27; the other way NYJ #12 into IND's #7.
Form (last 5)
=
Even
NYJ −4.6 per game over the last five, IND −3.6.
Market
NYJ
Clear advantage
Consensus has NYJ by 4; the model says NYJ by 1.0.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket NYJ by 4 · model NYJ by 1.0
Mkt NYJ 4
Model NYJ 1.0
← IND by 28tieNYJ by 28 →
12.3% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 4, a number 4.9% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 43 · model 39.3
Mkt 43
Model 39.3
20 pts4672 pts
8.6% of NFL games finish between 43 and 39.3. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
