The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
68%Green Bay PackersSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
GB by 6.2market GB by 6
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
37.6 pointsmarket 41
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Green Bay Packers at 68% to win, with the market at GB by 6.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Caleb Williams starting for Chicago Bears, and the model prices that in.
GB has the advantage in rushing: GB rushing ranks #9, CHI defends it at #25; the other way CHI #28 into GB's #11.
GB has the advantage in big plays: GB explosive pass rate ranks #2, CHI defends it at #30; the other way CHI #28 into GB's #10.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours CHI. CHI turnovers / game ranks #5, GB defends it at #6; the other way GB #18 into CHI's #8. The pick still lands on GB because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: GB has 7 more days since its last game (CHI 7d, GB 14d).
Form: GB has the better last five games by 19.2 points a game (CHI -12.2, GB +7.0).
Home field is with CHI, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it GB by 6.2 against a market GB by 6: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 37.6 against a line of 41: 3.4 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model GB by 6.2 · market GB by 6
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
GB
Clear advantage
GB passing ranks #9, CHI defends it at #10; the other way CHI #25 into GB's #5.
Rushing game
GB
Clear advantage
GB rushing ranks #9, CHI defends it at #25; the other way CHI #28 into GB's #11.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
GB third-down conversion ranks #12, CHI defends it at #11; the other way CHI #31 into GB's #9.
Big plays
GB
Clear advantage
GB explosive pass rate ranks #2, CHI defends it at #30; the other way CHI #28 into GB's #10.
Pass protection & rush
GB
Clear advantage
GB sack rate ranks #3, CHI defends it at #12; the other way CHI #32 into GB's #13.
Ball security
CHI
Slight advantage
CHI turnovers / game ranks #5, GB defends it at #6; the other way GB #18 into CHI's #8.
Form (last 5)
GB
Clear advantage
CHI −12.2 per game over the last five, GB +7.0.
Market
GB
Clear advantage
Consensus has GB by 6; the model says GB by 6.2.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket GB by 6 · model GB by 6.2
Mkt GB 6
Model GB 6.2
← GB by 28tieCHI by 28 →
The two numbers sit together; the disagreement is under half a point. The market is on 6, a number 6.7% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 41 · model 37.6
Mkt 41
Model 37.6
20 pts4672 pts
7.8% of NFL games finish between 41 and 37.6. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
