The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
62%Los Angeles RamsSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
LAR by 4.2market LAR by 2.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
42.5 pointsmarket 49.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Los Angeles Rams at 62% to win, with the market at LAR by 2.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Matthew Stafford starting for Los Angeles Rams, and the model prices that in.
No single matchup area stands out; the call rests on the teams' overall results this season, adjusted for who they played.
Home field is with LAR, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it LAR by 4.2 against a market LAR by 2.5: 1.7 points of daylight in LAR's favour. The model's total is 42.5 against a line of 49.5: 7.0 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model LAR by 4.2 · market LAR by 2.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
MIA
Slight advantage
MIA passing ranks #12, LAR defends it at #14; the other way LAR #13 into MIA's #9.
Rushing game
=
Even
MIA rushing ranks #31, LAR defends it at #23; the other way LAR #19 into MIA's #10.
Third down & red zone
MIA
Slight advantage
MIA third-down conversion ranks #25, LAR defends it at #18; the other way LAR #24 into MIA's #6.
Big plays
=
Even
MIA explosive pass rate ranks #30, LAR defends it at #27; the other way LAR #14 into MIA's #2.
Pass protection & rush
LAR
Clear advantage
LAR sack rate ranks #11, MIA defends it at #26; the other way MIA #17 into LAR's #4.
Ball security
LAR
Clear advantage
LAR turnovers / game ranks #6, MIA defends it at #20; the other way MIA #15 into LAR's #14.
Form (last 5)
=
Even
LAR +4.2 per game over the last five, MIA +3.0.
Market
LAR
Slight advantage
Consensus has LAR by 2.5; the model says LAR by 4.2.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket LAR by 2.5 · model LAR by 4.2
Mkt LAR 2.5
Model LAR 4.2
← MIA by 28tieLAR by 28 →
10.0% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 49.5 · model 42.5
Mkt 49.5
Model 42.5
20 pts4672 pts
20.6% of NFL games finish between 49.5 and 42.5. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
