The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
56%Pittsburgh SteelersLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
PIT by 2.0market WSH by 1.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
47.6 pointsmarket 45
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Pittsburgh Steelers at 56% to win, with the market at WSH by 1.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Russell Wilson starting for Pittsburgh Steelers, and the model prices that in.
PIT has the advantage in big plays: PIT explosive pass rate ranks #8, WSH defends it at #25; the other way WSH #16 into PIT's #15.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours WSH. WSH sack rate ranks #20, PIT defends it at #20; the other way PIT #27 into WSH's #8. The pick still lands on PIT because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: PIT has 6 more days since its last game (WSH 7d, PIT 13d).
Form: WSH has the better last five games by 12.2 points a game (WSH -1.0, PIT -13.2).
Home field is with WSH, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it PIT by 2.0 against a market WSH by 1.5: 3.5 points of daylight in PIT's favour. The model's total is 47.6 against a line of 45: 2.6 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model PIT by 2.0 · market WSH by 1.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor WSH, but the model still picks PIT. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
WSH
Slight advantage
WSH passing ranks #5, PIT defends it at #12; the other way PIT #18 into WSH's #18.
Rushing game
WSH
Slight advantage
WSH rushing ranks #5, PIT defends it at #19; the other way PIT #22 into WSH's #28.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
WSH red-zone touchdown rate ranks #7, PIT defends it at #13; the other way PIT #29 into WSH's #27.
Big plays
PIT
Clear advantage
PIT explosive pass rate ranks #8, WSH defends it at #25; the other way WSH #16 into PIT's #15.
Pass protection & rush
WSH
Clear advantage
WSH sack rate ranks #20, PIT defends it at #20; the other way PIT #27 into WSH's #8.
Ball security
PIT
Slight advantage
PIT turnovers / game ranks #8, WSH defends it at #16; the other way WSH #7 into PIT's #5.
Form (last 5)
WSH
Clear advantage
WSH −1.0 per game over the last five, PIT −13.2.
Market
WSH
Slight advantage
Consensus has WSH by 1.5; the model says PIT by 2.0.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket WSH by 1.5 · model PIT by 2.0
Mkt WSH 1.5
Model PIT 2.0
← PIT by 28tieWSH by 28 →
7.1% of NFL games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 45 · model 47.6
Mkt 45
Model 47.6
20 pts4672 pts
5.7% of NFL games finish between 45 and 47.6. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
