The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
69%Minnesota VikingsSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
MIN by 6.8market MIN by 7
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
49.4 pointsmarket 42.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Minnesota Vikings at 69% to win, with the market at MIN by 7.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Mac Jones starting for Jacksonville Jaguars, and the model prices that in.
MIN has the advantage in passing: MIN passing ranks #17, JAX defends it at #32; the other way JAX #21 into MIN's #4.
MIN has the advantage in big plays: MIN explosive pass rate ranks #7, JAX defends it at #32; the other way JAX #12 into MIN's #7.
Home field is with JAX, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it MIN by 6.8 against a market MIN by 7: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 49.4 against a line of 42.5: 6.9 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model MIN by 6.8 · market MIN by 7
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
MIN
Clear advantage
MIN passing ranks #17, JAX defends it at #32; the other way JAX #21 into MIN's #4.
Rushing game
MIN
Slight advantage
MIN rushing ranks #21, JAX defends it at #24; the other way JAX #13 into MIN's #2.
Third down & red zone
MIN
Slight advantage
MIN third-down conversion ranks #14, JAX defends it at #26; the other way JAX #22 into MIN's #2.
Big plays
MIN
Clear advantage
MIN explosive pass rate ranks #7, JAX defends it at #32; the other way JAX #12 into MIN's #7.
Pass protection & rush
JAX
Slight advantage
JAX sack rate ranks #6, MIN defends it at #15; the other way MIN #28 into JAX's #29.
Ball security
MIN
Clear advantage
MIN turnovers / game ranks #19, JAX defends it at #32; the other way JAX #24 into MIN's #1.
Form (last 5)
JAX
Slight advantage
JAX −0.8 per game over the last five, MIN −3.4.
Market
MIN
Clear advantage
Consensus has MIN by 7; the model says MIN by 6.8.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket MIN by 7 · model MIN by 6.8
Mkt MIN 7
Model MIN 6.8
← MIN by 28tieJAX by 28 →
The two numbers sit together; the disagreement is under half a point. The market is on 7, a number 8.6% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 42.5 · model 49.4
Mkt 42.5
Model 49.4
20 pts4672 pts
20.6% of NFL games finish between 42.5 and 49.4. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
