The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
74%Chicago BearsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
CHI by 8.6market CHI by 6.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
35.9 pointsmarket 37.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Chicago Bears at 74% to win, with the market at CHI by 6.5.
CHI has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: CHI red-zone touchdown rate ranks #6, NE defends it at #25; the other way NE #30 into CHI's #3.
CHI has the advantage in passing: CHI passing ranks #25, NE defends it at #29; the other way NE #23 into CHI's #10.
Counterpoint: big plays favours NE. NE explosive rush rate ranks #20, CHI defends it at #28; the other way CHI #31 into NE's #9. The pick still lands on CHI because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with CHI, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it CHI by 8.6 against a market CHI by 6.5: 2.1 points of daylight in CHI's favour. The model's total is 35.9 against a line of 37.5: 1.6 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model CHI by 8.6 · market CHI by 6.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
CHI
Clear advantage
CHI passing ranks #25, NE defends it at #29; the other way NE #23 into CHI's #10.
Rushing game
=
Even
NE rushing ranks #30, CHI defends it at #25; the other way CHI #28 into NE's #21.
Third down & red zone
CHI
Clear advantage
CHI red-zone touchdown rate ranks #6, NE defends it at #25; the other way NE #30 into CHI's #3.
Big plays
NE
Clear advantage
NE explosive rush rate ranks #20, CHI defends it at #28; the other way CHI #31 into NE's #9.
Pass protection & rush
CHI
Slight advantage
CHI sack rate ranks #32, NE defends it at #32; the other way NE #25 into CHI's #12.
Ball security
CHI
Clear advantage
CHI turnovers / game ranks #5, NE defends it at #31; the other way NE #26 into CHI's #8.
Form (last 5)
NE
Slight advantage
CHI −12.2 per game over the last five, NE −8.6.
Market
CHI
Clear advantage
Consensus has CHI by 6.5; the model says CHI by 8.6.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket CHI by 6.5 · model CHI by 8.6
Mkt CHI 6.5
Model CHI 8.6
← NE by 28tieCHI by 28 →
7.0% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 7. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 37.5 · model 35.9
Mkt 37.5
Model 35.9
20 pts4672 pts
6.1% of NFL games finish between 37.5 and 35.9. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
