The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
60%New York GiantsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
NYG by 3.3market NYG by 6.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
38.2 pointsmarket 40.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has New York Giants at 60% to win, with the market at NYG by 6.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Daniel Jones starting for New York Giants, and the model prices that in.
No single matchup area stands out; the call rests on the teams' overall results this season, adjusted for who they played.
Neutral site, so no home-field boost either way.
ContextThe model makes it NYG by 3.3 against a market NYG by 6.5: 3.2 points of daylight in CAR's favour. The model's total is 38.2 against a line of 40.5: 2.3 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model NYG by 3.3 · market NYG by 6.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
CAR passing ranks #26, NYG defends it at #30; the other way NYG #31 into CAR's #31.
Rushing game
=
Even
NYG rushing ranks #23, CAR defends it at #32; the other way CAR #11 into NYG's #17.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
NYG third-down conversion ranks #27, CAR defends it at #32; the other way CAR #26 into NYG's #20.
Big plays
=
Even
CAR explosive pass rate ranks #22, NYG defends it at #28; the other way NYG #31 into CAR's #24.
Pass protection & rush
NYG
Slight advantage
NYG sack rate ranks #22, CAR defends it at #28; the other way CAR #12 into NYG's #5.
Ball security
=
Even
CAR turnovers / game ranks #21, NYG defends it at #28; the other way NYG #22 into CAR's #24.
Form (last 5)
=
Even
CAR −8.8 per game over the last five, NYG −9.2.
Market
NYG
Clear advantage
Consensus has NYG by 6.5; the model says NYG by 3.3.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket NYG by 6.5 · model NYG by 3.3
Mkt NYG 6.5
Model NYG 3.3
← NYG by 28tieCAR by 28 →
7.6% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 6. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 40.5 · model 38.2
Mkt 40.5
Model 38.2
20 pts4672 pts
5.9% of NFL games finish between 40.5 and 38.2. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
