The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
55%Seattle SeahawksLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
SEA by 1.6market LAR by 1.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
46.6 pointsmarket 48.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Seattle Seahawks at 55% to win, with the market at LAR by 1.5.
SEA has the advantage in big plays: SEA explosive pass rate ranks #17, LAR defends it at #27; the other way LAR #14 into SEA's #8.
SEA has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: SEA third-down conversion ranks #20, LAR defends it at #18; the other way LAR #24 into SEA's #10.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours LAR. LAR sack rate ranks #11, SEA defends it at #14; the other way SEA #24 into LAR's #4. The pick still lands on SEA because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: LAR has 3 more days since its last game (SEA 7d, LAR 10d).
Home field is with SEA, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it SEA by 1.6 against a market LAR by 1.5: 3.1 points of daylight in SEA's favour. The model's total is 46.6 against a line of 48.5: 1.9 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model SEA by 1.6 · market LAR by 1.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor LAR, but the model still picks SEA. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
=
Even
LAR passing ranks #13, SEA defends it at #11; the other way SEA #20 into LAR's #14.
Rushing game
=
Even
SEA rushing ranks #24, LAR defends it at #23; the other way LAR #19 into SEA's #16.
Third down & red zone
SEA
Slight advantage
SEA third-down conversion ranks #20, LAR defends it at #18; the other way LAR #24 into SEA's #10.
Big plays
SEA
Slight advantage
SEA explosive pass rate ranks #17, LAR defends it at #27; the other way LAR #14 into SEA's #8.
Pass protection & rush
LAR
Clear advantage
LAR sack rate ranks #11, SEA defends it at #14; the other way SEA #24 into LAR's #4.
Ball security
LAR
Slight advantage
LAR turnovers / game ranks #6, SEA defends it at #15; the other way SEA #16 into LAR's #14.
Form (last 5)
LAR
Slight advantage
SEA 0.0 per game over the last five, LAR +4.2.
Market
LAR
Slight advantage
Consensus has LAR by 1.5; the model says SEA by 1.6.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket LAR by 1.5 · model SEA by 1.6
Mkt LAR 1.5
Model SEA 1.6
← LAR by 28tieSEA by 28 →
4.8% of NFL games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 48.5 · model 46.6
Mkt 48.5
Model 46.6
20 pts4672 pts
6.1% of NFL games finish between 48.5 and 46.6. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
