The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
80%Pittsburgh SteelersStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
PIT by 11.5market PIT by 6
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
31.7 pointsmarket 37.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Pittsburgh Steelers at 80% to win, with the market at PIT by 6.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Daniel Jones starting for New York Giants, and the model prices that in.
PIT has the advantage in passing: PIT passing ranks #18, NYG defends it at #30; the other way NYG #31 into PIT's #12.
PIT has the advantage in big plays: PIT explosive pass rate ranks #8, NYG defends it at #28; the other way NYG #31 into PIT's #15.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours NYG. NYG sack rate ranks #22, PIT defends it at #20; the other way PIT #27 into NYG's #5. The pick still lands on PIT because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with PIT, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it PIT by 11.5 against a market PIT by 6: 5.5 points of daylight in PIT's favour. The model's total is 31.7 against a line of 37.5: 5.8 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model PIT by 11.5 · market PIT by 6
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
PIT
Clear advantage
PIT passing ranks #18, NYG defends it at #30; the other way NYG #31 into PIT's #12.
Rushing game
=
Even
NYG rushing ranks #23, PIT defends it at #19; the other way PIT #22 into NYG's #17.
Third down & red zone
PIT
Slight advantage
PIT third-down conversion ranks #13, NYG defends it at #20; the other way NYG #27 into PIT's #12.
Big plays
PIT
Clear advantage
PIT explosive pass rate ranks #8, NYG defends it at #28; the other way NYG #31 into PIT's #15.
Pass protection & rush
NYG
Clear advantage
NYG sack rate ranks #22, PIT defends it at #20; the other way PIT #27 into NYG's #5.
Ball security
PIT
Clear advantage
PIT turnovers / game ranks #8, NYG defends it at #28; the other way NYG #22 into PIT's #5.
Form (last 5)
NYG
Slight advantage
PIT −13.2 per game over the last five, NYG −9.2.
Market
PIT
Clear advantage
Consensus has PIT by 6; the model says PIT by 11.5.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket PIT by 6 · model PIT by 11.5
Mkt PIT 6
Model PIT 11.5
← NYG by 28tiePIT by 28 →
12.0% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 6, a number 6.7% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key number 7. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 37.5 · model 31.7
Mkt 37.5
Model 31.7
20 pts4672 pts
14.7% of NFL games finish between 37.5 and 31.7. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
