Cardinals vs Dolphins Prediction — NFL Week 8, Oct 27, 2024

No winner call was locked for Cardinals vs Dolphins before kickoff.

Arizona Cardinals

8-9

Modelpredicted

17 – 21

Sun, Oct 27, 1:00 PM ET

Hard Rock Stadium · 82° · 14 mph wind

Final

Miami Dolphins

8-9

MarketSpread MIA -4Total 46.5Moneyline ARI +164 · MIA -198

Save image Square

The pick

backtest · not locked

Win chance

60%Miami DolphinsSolid

No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.

Model margin

MIA by 3.6market MIA by 4

Model total

37.8 pointsmarket 46.5

Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.

Why the model calls it

The model has Miami Dolphins at 60% to win, with the market at MIA by 4.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Tim Boyle starting for Miami Dolphins, and the model prices that in.
MIA has the advantage in passing: MIA passing ranks #12, ARI defends it at #24; the other way ARI #11 into MIA's #9.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours ARI. ARI sack rate ranks #5, MIA defends it at #26; the other way MIA #17 into ARI's #17. The pick still lands on MIA because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with MIA, which supports the pick.

ContextThe model makes it MIA by 3.6 against a market MIA by 4: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 37.8 against a line of 46.5: 8.7 points below it. The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.

Matchup context: who has the advantage

Model MIA by 3.6 · market MIA by 4

ⓘMost of these areas favor ARI, but the model still picks MIA. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.

Passing game

MIA

Slight advantage

MIA passing ranks #12, ARI defends it at #24; the other way ARI #11 into MIA's #9.

Rushing game

ARI

Slight advantage

ARI rushing ranks #8, MIA defends it at #10; the other way MIA #31 into ARI's #26.

Third down & red zone

Even

MIA third-down conversion ranks #25, ARI defends it at #28; the other way ARI #8 into MIA's #6.

Big plays

ARI

Slight advantage

ARI explosive rush rate ranks #1, MIA defends it at #25; the other way MIA #15 into ARI's #26.

Pass protection & rush

ARI

Clear advantage

ARI sack rate ranks #5, MIA defends it at #26; the other way MIA #17 into ARI's #17.

Ball security

MIA

Slight advantage

MIA turnovers / game ranks #15, ARI defends it at #23; the other way ARI #20 into MIA's #20.

Form (last 5)

Even

MIA +3.0 per game over the last five, ARI +2.8.

Market

MIA

Clear advantage

Consensus has MIA by 4; the model says MIA by 3.6.

the market, for comparison

Where the lines sit

3,893 NFL games since 2012

Marginmarket MIA by 4 · model MIA by 3.6

Mkt MIA 4

Model MIA 3.6

← ARI by 28tieMIA by 28 →

The two numbers sit together; the disagreement is under half a point. The market is on 4, a number 4.9% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).

Totalmarket 46.5 · model 37.8

Mkt 46.5

Model 37.8

20 pts4672 pts

25.0% of NFL games finish between 46.5 and 37.8. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.

The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.

Cardinals vs Dolphins Prediction — NFL Week 8, Oct 27, 2024

The pickiThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.

Why the model calls itiThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.

Matchup context: who has the advantageiWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.

Where the lines sitiWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.

Cardinals vs Dolphins Prediction — NFL Week 8, Oct 27, 2024

The pickiThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.

Why the model calls itiThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.

Matchup context: who has the advantageiWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.

Where the lines sitiWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.

The pick

Why the model calls it

Matchup context: who has the advantage

Where the lines sit

The pick

Why the model calls it

Matchup context: who has the advantage

Where the lines sit