The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
62%Green Bay PackersSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
GB by 4.1market GB by 3.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
50.7 pointsmarket 49
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Green Bay Packers at 62% to win, with the market at GB by 3.5.
GB has the advantage in passing: GB passing ranks #9, JAX defends it at #32; the other way JAX #21 into GB's #5.
GB has the advantage in big plays: GB explosive pass rate ranks #2, JAX defends it at #32; the other way JAX #12 into GB's #10.
Form: GB has the better last five games by 7.8 points a game (JAX -0.8, GB +7.0).
Home field is with JAX, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it GB by 4.1 against a market GB by 3.5: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 50.7 against a line of 49: 1.7 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model GB by 4.1 · market GB by 3.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
GB
Clear advantage
GB passing ranks #9, JAX defends it at #32; the other way JAX #21 into GB's #5.
Rushing game
GB
Clear advantage
GB rushing ranks #9, JAX defends it at #24; the other way JAX #13 into GB's #11.
Third down & red zone
GB
Slight advantage
GB third-down conversion ranks #12, JAX defends it at #26; the other way JAX #22 into GB's #9.
Big plays
GB
Clear advantage
GB explosive pass rate ranks #2, JAX defends it at #32; the other way JAX #12 into GB's #10.
Pass protection & rush
GB
Clear advantage
GB sack rate ranks #3, JAX defends it at #29; the other way JAX #6 into GB's #13.
Ball security
GB
Clear advantage
GB turnovers / game ranks #18, JAX defends it at #32; the other way JAX #24 into GB's #6.
Form (last 5)
GB
Clear advantage
JAX −0.8 per game over the last five, GB +7.0.
Market
GB
Clear advantage
Consensus has GB by 3.5; the model says GB by 4.1.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket GB by 3.5 · model GB by 4.1
Mkt GB 3.5
Model GB 4.1
← GB by 28tieJAX by 28 →
2.5% of NFL games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 49 · model 50.7
Mkt 49
Model 50.7
20 pts4672 pts
2.6% of NFL games finish between 49 and 50.7. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
