The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
86%Detroit LionsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
DET by 14.3market DET by 12.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
48.7 pointsmarket 45
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Detroit Lions at 86% to win, with the market at DET by 12.5.
DET has the advantage in passing: DET passing ranks #3, TEN defends it at #19; the other way TEN #29 into DET's #7.
DET has the advantage in rushing: DET rushing ranks #3, TEN defends it at #22; the other way TEN #29 into DET's #14.
Form: DET has the better last five games by 12.6 points a game (DET +5.0, TEN -7.6).
Home field is with DET, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it DET by 14.3 against a market DET by 12.5: 1.8 points of daylight in DET's favour. The model's total is 48.7 against a line of 45: 3.7 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model DET by 14.3 · market DET by 12.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
DET
Clear advantage
DET passing ranks #3, TEN defends it at #19; the other way TEN #29 into DET's #7.
Rushing game
DET
Clear advantage
DET rushing ranks #3, TEN defends it at #22; the other way TEN #29 into DET's #14.
Third down & red zone
DET
Clear advantage
DET third-down conversion ranks #4, TEN defends it at #22; the other way TEN #21 into DET's #1.
Big plays
DET
Slight advantage
DET explosive rush rate ranks #3, TEN defends it at #12; the other way TEN #12 into DET's #11.
Pass protection & rush
DET
Slight advantage
DET sack rate ranks #8, TEN defends it at #24; the other way TEN #26 into DET's #30.
Ball security
DET
Clear advantage
DET turnovers / game ranks #14, TEN defends it at #22; the other way TEN #32 into DET's #12.
Form (last 5)
DET
Clear advantage
DET +5.0 per game over the last five, TEN −7.6.
Market
DET
Clear advantage
Consensus has DET by 12.5; the model says DET by 14.3.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket DET by 12.5 · model DET by 14.3
Mkt DET 12.5
Model DET 14.3
← TEN by 28tieDET by 28 →
3.9% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 14. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 45 · model 48.7
Mkt 45
Model 48.7
20 pts4672 pts
8.4% of NFL games finish between 45 and 48.7. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
