The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
72%Pittsburgh SteelersStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
PIT by 7.7market NYJ by 3
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
32.3 pointsmarket 40
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Pittsburgh Steelers at 72% to win, with the market at NYJ by 3.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Russell Wilson starting for Pittsburgh Steelers, and the model prices that in.
PIT has the advantage in passing: PIT passing ranks #18, NYJ defends it at #20; the other way NYJ #19 into PIT's #12.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours NYJ. NYJ sack rate ranks #14, PIT defends it at #20; the other way PIT #27 into NYJ's #7. The pick still lands on PIT because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: NYJ has the better last five games by 8.6 points a game (PIT -13.2, NYJ -4.6).
Home field is with PIT, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it PIT by 7.7 against a market NYJ by 3: 10.7 points of daylight in PIT's favour. The model's total is 32.3 against a line of 40: 7.7 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model PIT by 7.7 · market NYJ by 3
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
PIT
Slight advantage
PIT passing ranks #18, NYJ defends it at #20; the other way NYJ #19 into PIT's #12.
Rushing game
=
Even
NYJ rushing ranks #20, PIT defends it at #19; the other way PIT #22 into NYJ's #20.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
PIT third-down conversion ranks #13, NYJ defends it at #16; the other way NYJ #16 into PIT's #12.
Big plays
=
Even
NYJ explosive rush rate ranks #6, PIT defends it at #18; the other way PIT #14 into NYJ's #6.
Pass protection & rush
NYJ
Clear advantage
NYJ sack rate ranks #14, PIT defends it at #20; the other way PIT #27 into NYJ's #7.
Ball security
PIT
Clear advantage
PIT turnovers / game ranks #8, NYJ defends it at #27; the other way NYJ #12 into PIT's #5.
Form (last 5)
NYJ
Clear advantage
PIT −13.2 per game over the last five, NYJ −4.6.
Market
NYJ
Slight advantage
Consensus has NYJ by 3; the model says PIT by 7.7.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket NYJ by 3 · model PIT by 7.7
Mkt NYJ 3
Model PIT 7.7
← NYJ by 28tiePIT by 28 →
29.6% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 3, a number 14.5% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key numbers 3 and 7 and 6. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 40 · model 32.3
Mkt 40
Model 32.3
20 pts4672 pts
17.5% of NFL games finish between 40 and 32.3. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
