The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
53%Kansas City ChiefsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
KC by 0.9market SF by 2.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
44.8 pointsmarket 47.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Kansas City Chiefs at 53% to win, with the market at SF by 2.5.
KC has the advantage in rushing: KC rushing ranks #14, SF defends it at #29; the other way SF #12 into KC's #12.
KC has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: KC red-zone touchdown rate ranks #19, SF defends it at #31; the other way SF #14 into KC's #11.
Counterpoint: big plays favours SF. SF explosive pass rate ranks #3, KC defends it at #23; the other way KC #27 into SF's #3. The pick still lands on KC because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: KC has 3 more days since its last game (SF 10d, KC 13d).
Home field is with SF, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it KC by 0.9 against a market SF by 2.5: 3.4 points of daylight in KC's favour. The model's total is 44.8 against a line of 47.5: 2.7 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model KC by 0.9 · market SF by 2.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
SF
Slight advantage
SF passing ranks #8, KC defends it at #26; the other way KC #10 into SF's #17.
Rushing game
KC
Clear advantage
KC rushing ranks #14, SF defends it at #29; the other way SF #12 into KC's #12.
Third down & red zone
KC
Slight advantage
KC red-zone touchdown rate ranks #19, SF defends it at #31; the other way SF #14 into KC's #11.
Big plays
SF
Clear advantage
SF explosive pass rate ranks #3, KC defends it at #23; the other way KC #27 into SF's #3.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
SF sack rate ranks #13, KC defends it at #16; the other way KC #18 into SF's #18.
Ball security
KC
Clear advantage
KC turnovers / game ranks #9, SF defends it at #21; the other way SF #27 into KC's #17.
Form (last 5)
=
Even
SF −4.4 per game over the last five, KC −5.0.
Market
SF
Slight advantage
Consensus has SF by 2.5; the model says KC by 0.9.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket SF by 2.5 · model KC by 0.9
Mkt SF 2.5
Model KC 0.9
← KC by 28tieSF by 28 →
5.0% of NFL games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 47.5 · model 44.8
Mkt 47.5
Model 44.8
20 pts4672 pts
8.1% of NFL games finish between 47.5 and 44.8. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
