The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
50%Detroit LionsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
DET by 0.1market DET by 3.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
53.0 pointsmarket 52.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Detroit Lions at 50% to win, with the market at DET by 3.5.
DET has the advantage in passing: DET passing ranks #3, DAL defends it at #16; the other way DAL #30 into DET's #7.
DET has the advantage in rushing: DET rushing ranks #3, DAL defends it at #31; the other way DAL #27 into DET's #14.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours DAL. DAL sack rate ranks #9, DET defends it at #30; the other way DET #8 into DAL's #2. The pick still lands on DET because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: DET has 6 more days since its last game (DAL 7d, DET 13d).
Form: DET has the better last five games by 10.4 points a game (DAL -5.4, DET +5.0).
Home field is with DAL, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it DET by 0.1 against a market DET by 3.5: 3.4 points of daylight in DAL's favour. The model's total is 53.0 against a line of 52.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model DET by 0.1 · market DET by 3.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
DET
Clear advantage
DET passing ranks #3, DAL defends it at #16; the other way DAL #30 into DET's #7.
Rushing game
DET
Clear advantage
DET rushing ranks #3, DAL defends it at #31; the other way DAL #27 into DET's #14.
Third down & red zone
DET
Clear advantage
DET red-zone touchdown rate ranks #3, DAL defends it at #32; the other way DAL #31 into DET's #12.
Big plays
DET
Clear advantage
DET explosive rush rate ranks #3, DAL defends it at #24; the other way DAL #19 into DET's #11.
Pass protection & rush
DAL
Clear advantage
DAL sack rate ranks #9, DET defends it at #30; the other way DET #8 into DAL's #2.
Ball security
DET
Clear advantage
DET turnovers / game ranks #14, DAL defends it at #13; the other way DAL #28 into DET's #12.
Form (last 5)
DET
Clear advantage
DAL −5.4 per game over the last five, DET +5.0.
Market
DET
Clear advantage
Consensus has DET by 3.5; the model says DET by 0.1.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket DET by 3.5 · model DET by 0.1
Mkt DET 3.5
Model DET 0.1
← DET by 28tieDAL by 28 →
11.3% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 52.5 · model 53.0
Mkt 52.5
Model 53.0
20 pts4672 pts
Model and market agree on the total to within half a point. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
