The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
55%Chicago BearsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
CHI by 1.6market JAX by 1.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
43.1 pointsmarket 44.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Chicago Bears at 55% to win, with the market at JAX by 1.5.
CHI has the advantage in passing: CHI passing ranks #25, JAX defends it at #32; the other way JAX #21 into CHI's #10.
CHI has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: CHI red-zone touchdown rate ranks #6, JAX defends it at #19; the other way JAX #10 into CHI's #3.
Counterpoint: big plays favours JAX. JAX explosive rush rate ranks #10, CHI defends it at #28; the other way CHI #31 into JAX's #20. The pick still lands on CHI because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: JAX has the better last five games by 11.4 points a game (CHI -12.2, JAX -0.8).
Neutral site, so no home-field boost either way.
ContextThe model makes it CHI by 1.6 against a market JAX by 1.5: 3.1 points of daylight in CHI's favour. The model's total is 43.1 against a line of 44.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model CHI by 1.6 · market JAX by 1.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor JAX, but the model still picks CHI. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
CHI
Clear advantage
CHI passing ranks #25, JAX defends it at #32; the other way JAX #21 into CHI's #10.
Rushing game
JAX
Clear advantage
JAX rushing ranks #13, CHI defends it at #25; the other way CHI #28 into JAX's #24.
Third down & red zone
CHI
Slight advantage
CHI red-zone touchdown rate ranks #6, JAX defends it at #19; the other way JAX #10 into CHI's #3.
Big plays
JAX
Clear advantage
JAX explosive rush rate ranks #10, CHI defends it at #28; the other way CHI #31 into JAX's #20.
Pass protection & rush
JAX
Slight advantage
JAX sack rate ranks #6, CHI defends it at #12; the other way CHI #32 into JAX's #29.
Ball security
CHI
Clear advantage
CHI turnovers / game ranks #5, JAX defends it at #32; the other way JAX #24 into CHI's #8.
Form (last 5)
JAX
Clear advantage
CHI −12.2 per game over the last five, JAX −0.8.
Market
JAX
Slight advantage
Consensus has JAX by 1.5; the model says CHI by 1.6.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket JAX by 1.5 · model CHI by 1.6
Mkt JAX 1.5
Model CHI 1.6
← JAX by 28tieCHI by 28 →
4.8% of NFL games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 44.5 · model 43.1
Mkt 44.5
Model 43.1
20 pts4672 pts
3.9% of NFL games finish between 44.5 and 43.1. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
