The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
82%San Francisco 49ersStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
SF by 12.5market SF by 7
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
50.4 pointsmarket 48.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has San Francisco 49ers at 82% to win, with the market at SF by 7.
SF has the advantage in big plays: SF explosive pass rate ranks #3, ARI defends it at #13; the other way ARI #20 into SF's #3.
SF has the advantage in passing: SF passing ranks #8, ARI defends it at #24; the other way ARI #11 into SF's #17.
Form: ARI has the better last five games by 7.2 points a game (SF -4.4, ARI +2.8).
Home field is with SF, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it SF by 12.5 against a market SF by 7: 5.5 points of daylight in SF's favour. The model's total is 50.4 against a line of 48.5: 1.9 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model SF by 12.5 · market SF by 7
ⓘMost of these areas favor ARI, but the model still picks SF. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
SF
Slight advantage
SF passing ranks #8, ARI defends it at #24; the other way ARI #11 into SF's #17.
Rushing game
ARI
Slight advantage
ARI rushing ranks #8, SF defends it at #29; the other way SF #12 into ARI's #26.
Third down & red zone
ARI
Slight advantage
ARI red-zone touchdown rate ranks #17, SF defends it at #31; the other way SF #14 into ARI's #7.
Big plays
SF
Clear advantage
SF explosive pass rate ranks #3, ARI defends it at #13; the other way ARI #20 into SF's #3.
Pass protection & rush
ARI
Slight advantage
ARI sack rate ranks #5, SF defends it at #18; the other way SF #13 into ARI's #17.
Ball security
=
Even
ARI turnovers / game ranks #20, SF defends it at #21; the other way SF #27 into ARI's #23.
Form (last 5)
ARI
Clear advantage
SF −4.4 per game over the last five, ARI +2.8.
Market
SF
Clear advantage
Consensus has SF by 7; the model says SF by 12.5.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket SF by 7 · model SF by 12.5
Mkt SF 7
Model SF 12.5
← ARI by 28tieSF by 28 →
8.7% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 7, a number 8.6% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 48.5 · model 50.4
Mkt 48.5
Model 50.4
20 pts4672 pts
4.9% of NFL games finish between 48.5 and 50.4. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
