The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
61%Washington CommandersSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
WSH by 3.9market WSH by 3
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
50.9 pointsmarket 44
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Washington Commanders at 61% to win, with the market at WSH by 3.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Deshaun Watson starting for Cleveland Browns, and the model prices that in.
WSH has the advantage in passing: WSH passing ranks #5, CLE defends it at #22; the other way CLE #32 into WSH's #18.
WSH has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: WSH red-zone touchdown rate ranks #7, CLE defends it at #26; the other way CLE #27 into WSH's #27.
Form: WSH has the better last five games by 16.4 points a game (WSH -1.0, CLE -17.4).
Home field is with WSH, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it WSH by 3.9 against a market WSH by 3: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 50.9 against a line of 44: 6.9 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model WSH by 3.9 · market WSH by 3
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
WSH
Clear advantage
WSH passing ranks #5, CLE defends it at #22; the other way CLE #32 into WSH's #18.
Rushing game
WSH
Slight advantage
WSH rushing ranks #5, CLE defends it at #13; the other way CLE #26 into WSH's #28.
Third down & red zone
WSH
Clear advantage
WSH red-zone touchdown rate ranks #7, CLE defends it at #26; the other way CLE #27 into WSH's #27.
Big plays
WSH
Clear advantage
WSH explosive pass rate ranks #16, CLE defends it at #31; the other way CLE #32 into WSH's #25.
Pass protection & rush
WSH
Slight advantage
WSH sack rate ranks #20, CLE defends it at #11; the other way CLE #29 into WSH's #8.
Ball security
WSH
Clear advantage
WSH turnovers / game ranks #7, CLE defends it at #30; the other way CLE #31 into WSH's #16.
Form (last 5)
WSH
Clear advantage
WSH −1.0 per game over the last five, CLE −17.4.
Market
WSH
Slight advantage
Consensus has WSH by 3; the model says WSH by 3.9.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket WSH by 3 · model WSH by 3.9
Mkt WSH 3
Model WSH 3.9
← CLE by 28tieWSH by 28 →
No whole-number margin falls between 3 and 3.9, so the two numbers differ only on a push at 3. The market is on 3, a number 14.5% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 44 · model 50.9
Mkt 44
Model 50.9
20 pts4672 pts
15.7% of NFL games finish between 44 and 50.9. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
