The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
57%New England PatriotsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
NE by 2.3market MIA by 2
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
35.1 pointsmarket 37
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has New England Patriots at 57% to win, with the market at MIA by 2.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Tyler Huntley starting for Miami Dolphins, and the model prices that in.
Counterpoint: passing favours MIA. MIA passing ranks #12, NE defends it at #29; the other way NE #23 into MIA's #9. The pick still lands on NE because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: MIA has the better last five games by 11.6 points a game (NE -8.6, MIA +3.0).
Home field is with NE, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it NE by 2.3 against a market MIA by 2: 4.3 points of daylight in NE's favour. The model's total is 35.1 against a line of 37: 1.9 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model NE by 2.3 · market MIA by 2
ⓘMost of these areas favor MIA, but the model still picks NE. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
MIA
Clear advantage
MIA passing ranks #12, NE defends it at #29; the other way NE #23 into MIA's #9.
Rushing game
MIA
Slight advantage
MIA rushing ranks #31, NE defends it at #21; the other way NE #30 into MIA's #10.
Third down & red zone
MIA
Clear advantage
MIA red-zone touchdown rate ranks #16, NE defends it at #25; the other way NE #30 into MIA's #5.
Big plays
=
Even
NE explosive rush rate ranks #20, MIA defends it at #25; the other way MIA #15 into NE's #9.
Pass protection & rush
MIA
Slight advantage
MIA sack rate ranks #17, NE defends it at #32; the other way NE #25 into MIA's #26.
Ball security
MIA
Clear advantage
MIA turnovers / game ranks #15, NE defends it at #31; the other way NE #26 into MIA's #20.
Form (last 5)
MIA
Clear advantage
NE −8.6 per game over the last five, MIA +3.0.
Market
MIA
Slight advantage
Consensus has MIA by 2; the model says NE by 2.3.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket MIA by 2 · model NE by 2.3
Mkt MIA 2
Model NE 2.3
← MIA by 28tieNE by 28 →
7.2% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 2, a number 4.6% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 37 · model 35.1
Mkt 37
Model 35.1
20 pts4672 pts
2.6% of NFL games finish between 37 and 35.1. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
