The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
62%Minnesota VikingsSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
MIN by 4.2market MIN by 2.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
35.9 pointsmarket 42
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Minnesota Vikings at 62% to win, with the market at MIN by 2.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Sam Darnold starting for Minnesota Vikings, and the model prices that in.
MIN has the advantage in passing: MIN passing ranks #17, NYJ defends it at #20; the other way NYJ #19 into MIN's #4.
MIN has the advantage in rushing: MIN rushing ranks #21, NYJ defends it at #20; the other way NYJ #20 into MIN's #2.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours NYJ. NYJ sack rate ranks #14, MIN defends it at #15; the other way MIN #28 into NYJ's #7. The pick still lands on MIN because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Neutral site, so no home-field boost either way.
ContextThe model makes it MIN by 4.2 against a market MIN by 2.5: 1.7 points of daylight in MIN's favour. The model's total is 35.9 against a line of 42: 6.1 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model MIN by 4.2 · market MIN by 2.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
MIN
Clear advantage
MIN passing ranks #17, NYJ defends it at #20; the other way NYJ #19 into MIN's #4.
Rushing game
MIN
Clear advantage
MIN rushing ranks #21, NYJ defends it at #20; the other way NYJ #20 into MIN's #2.
Third down & red zone
MIN
Slight advantage
MIN third-down conversion ranks #14, NYJ defends it at #16; the other way NYJ #16 into MIN's #2.
Big plays
=
Even
MIN explosive pass rate ranks #7, NYJ defends it at #21; the other way NYJ #18 into MIN's #7.
Pass protection & rush
NYJ
Clear advantage
NYJ sack rate ranks #14, MIN defends it at #15; the other way MIN #28 into NYJ's #7.
Ball security
MIN
Clear advantage
MIN turnovers / game ranks #19, NYJ defends it at #27; the other way NYJ #12 into MIN's #1.
Form (last 5)
=
Even
MIN −3.4 per game over the last five, NYJ −4.6.
Market
MIN
Slight advantage
Consensus has MIN by 2.5; the model says MIN by 4.2.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket MIN by 2.5 · model MIN by 4.2
Mkt MIN 2.5
Model MIN 4.2
← NYJ by 28tieMIN by 28 →
10.0% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 42 · model 35.9
Mkt 42
Model 35.9
20 pts4672 pts
17.3% of NFL games finish between 42 and 35.9. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
