The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
76%Cincinnati BengalsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
CIN by 9.5market CIN by 7.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
49.0 pointsmarket 46
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Cincinnati Bengals at 76% to win, with the market at CIN by 7.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Jayden Daniels starting for Washington Commanders, and the model prices that in.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours WSH. WSH sack rate ranks #20, CIN defends it at #27; the other way CIN #19 into WSH's #8. The pick still lands on CIN because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: CIN has the better last five games by 9.6 points a game (CIN +8.6, WSH -1.0).
Home field is with CIN, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it CIN by 9.5 against a market CIN by 7.5: 2.0 points of daylight in CIN's favour. The model's total is 49.0 against a line of 46: 3.0 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model CIN by 9.5 · market CIN by 7.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor WSH, but the model still picks CIN. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
=
Even
CIN passing ranks #7, WSH defends it at #18; the other way WSH #5 into CIN's #15.
Rushing game
WSH
Slight advantage
WSH rushing ranks #5, CIN defends it at #27; the other way CIN #18 into WSH's #28.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
WSH third-down conversion ranks #7, CIN defends it at #23; the other way CIN #5 into WSH's #15.
Big plays
=
Even
CIN explosive rush rate ranks #25, WSH defends it at #32; the other way WSH #17 into CIN's #17.
Pass protection & rush
WSH
Clear advantage
WSH sack rate ranks #20, CIN defends it at #27; the other way CIN #19 into WSH's #8.
Ball security
=
Even
WSH turnovers / game ranks #7, CIN defends it at #10; the other way CIN #17 into WSH's #16.
Form (last 5)
CIN
Clear advantage
CIN +8.6 per game over the last five, WSH −1.0.
Market
CIN
Clear advantage
Consensus has CIN by 7.5; the model says CIN by 9.5.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket CIN by 7.5 · model CIN by 9.5
Mkt CIN 7.5
Model CIN 9.5
← WSH by 28tieCIN by 28 →
3.5% of NFL games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 46 · model 49.0
Mkt 46
Model 49.0
20 pts4672 pts
8.4% of NFL games finish between 46 and 49.0. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
