The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
51%Dallas CowboysLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
DAL by 0.3market BAL by 1.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
51.4 pointsmarket 47.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Dallas Cowboys at 51% to win, with the market at BAL by 1.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Dak Prescott starting for Dallas Cowboys, and the model prices that in.
Counterpoint: passing favours BAL. BAL passing ranks #1, DAL defends it at #16; the other way DAL #30 into BAL's #8. The pick still lands on DAL because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: BAL has the better last five games by 22.0 points a game (DAL -5.4, BAL +16.6).
Home field is with DAL, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it DAL by 0.3 against a market BAL by 1.5: 1.8 points of daylight in DAL's favour. The model's total is 51.4 against a line of 47.5: 3.9 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model DAL by 0.3 · market BAL by 1.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor BAL, but the model still picks DAL. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
BAL
Clear advantage
BAL passing ranks #1, DAL defends it at #16; the other way DAL #30 into BAL's #8.
Rushing game
BAL
Clear advantage
BAL rushing ranks #1, DAL defends it at #31; the other way DAL #27 into BAL's #8.
Third down & red zone
BAL
Clear advantage
BAL red-zone touchdown rate ranks #1, DAL defends it at #32; the other way DAL #31 into BAL's #14.
Big plays
BAL
Clear advantage
BAL explosive rush rate ranks #2, DAL defends it at #24; the other way DAL #19 into BAL's #1.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
BAL sack rate ranks #4, DAL defends it at #2; the other way DAL #9 into BAL's #6.
Ball security
BAL
Slight advantage
BAL turnovers / game ranks #4, DAL defends it at #13; the other way DAL #28 into BAL's #25.
Form (last 5)
BAL
Clear advantage
DAL −5.4 per game over the last five, BAL +16.6.
Market
BAL
Slight advantage
Consensus has BAL by 1.5; the model says DAL by 0.3.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket BAL by 1.5 · model DAL by 0.3
Mkt BAL 1.5
Model DAL 0.3
← BAL by 28tieDAL by 28 →
2.5% of NFL games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 47.5 · model 51.4
Mkt 47.5
Model 51.4
20 pts4672 pts
11.5% of NFL games finish between 47.5 and 51.4. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
