The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
66%Pittsburgh SteelersSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
PIT by 5.7market PIT by 3
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
32.6 pointsmarket 36
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Pittsburgh Steelers at 66% to win, with the market at PIT by 3.
PIT has the advantage in big plays: PIT explosive rush rate ranks #14, LAC defends it at #21; the other way LAC #26 into PIT's #18.
Counterpoint: rushing favours LAC. LAC rushing ranks #17, PIT defends it at #19; the other way PIT #22 into LAC's #7. The pick still lands on PIT because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: LAC has the better last five games by 15.4 points a game (PIT -13.2, LAC +2.2).
Home field is with PIT, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it PIT by 5.7 against a market PIT by 3: 2.7 points of daylight in PIT's favour. The model's total is 32.6 against a line of 36: 3.4 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model PIT by 5.7 · market PIT by 3
ⓘMost of these areas favor LAC, but the model still picks PIT. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
LAC
Slight advantage
LAC passing ranks #15, PIT defends it at #12; the other way PIT #18 into LAC's #6.
Rushing game
LAC
Clear advantage
LAC rushing ranks #17, PIT defends it at #19; the other way PIT #22 into LAC's #7.
Third down & red zone
LAC
Clear advantage
LAC red-zone touchdown rate ranks #20, PIT defends it at #13; the other way PIT #29 into LAC's #2.
Big plays
PIT
Slight advantage
PIT explosive rush rate ranks #14, LAC defends it at #21; the other way LAC #26 into PIT's #18.
Pass protection & rush
LAC
Clear advantage
LAC sack rate ranks #23, PIT defends it at #20; the other way PIT #27 into LAC's #9.
Ball security
=
Even
LAC turnovers / game ranks #3, PIT defends it at #5; the other way PIT #8 into LAC's #9.
Form (last 5)
LAC
Clear advantage
PIT −13.2 per game over the last five, LAC +2.2.
Market
PIT
Slight advantage
Consensus has PIT by 3; the model says PIT by 5.7.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket PIT by 3 · model PIT by 5.7
Mkt PIT 3
Model PIT 5.7
← LAC by 28tiePIT by 28 →
4.3% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 3, a number 14.5% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 36 · model 32.6
Mkt 36
Model 32.6
20 pts4672 pts
7.1% of NFL games finish between 36 and 32.6. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
