The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
63%New York JetsSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
NYJ by 4.6market NYJ by 6.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
34.4 pointsmarket 39
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has New York Jets at 63% to win, with the market at NYJ by 6.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Jacoby Brissett starting for New England Patriots, and the model prices that in.
NYJ has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: NYJ third-down conversion ranks #16, NE defends it at #27; the other way NE #30 into NYJ's #16.
NYJ has the advantage in passing: NYJ passing ranks #19, NE defends it at #29; the other way NE #23 into NYJ's #20.
Home field is with NYJ, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it NYJ by 4.6 against a market NYJ by 6.5: 1.9 points of daylight in NE's favour. The model's total is 34.4 against a line of 39: 4.6 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model NYJ by 4.6 · market NYJ by 6.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
NYJ
Slight advantage
NYJ passing ranks #19, NE defends it at #29; the other way NE #23 into NYJ's #20.
Rushing game
NYJ
Slight advantage
NYJ rushing ranks #20, NE defends it at #21; the other way NE #30 into NYJ's #20.
Third down & red zone
NYJ
Clear advantage
NYJ third-down conversion ranks #16, NE defends it at #27; the other way NE #30 into NYJ's #16.
Big plays
NYJ
Slight advantage
NYJ explosive rush rate ranks #6, NE defends it at #9; the other way NE #20 into NYJ's #6.
Pass protection & rush
NYJ
Clear advantage
NYJ sack rate ranks #14, NE defends it at #32; the other way NE #25 into NYJ's #7.
Ball security
NYJ
Clear advantage
NYJ turnovers / game ranks #12, NE defends it at #31; the other way NE #26 into NYJ's #27.
Form (last 5)
NYJ
Slight advantage
NYJ −4.6 per game over the last five, NE −8.6.
Market
NYJ
Clear advantage
Consensus has NYJ by 6.5; the model says NYJ by 4.6.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket NYJ by 6.5 · model NYJ by 4.6
Mkt NYJ 6.5
Model NYJ 4.6
← NE by 28tieNYJ by 28 →
5.7% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 6. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 39 · model 34.4
Mkt 39
Model 34.4
20 pts4672 pts
9.6% of NFL games finish between 39 and 34.4. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
