The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
53%New England PatriotsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
NE by 1.1market SEA by 3.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
37.7 pointsmarket 39
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has New England Patriots at 53% to win, with the market at SEA by 3.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Geno Smith starting for Seattle Seahawks, and the model prices that in.
Counterpoint: third downs and the red zone favours SEA. SEA red-zone touchdown rate ranks #15, NE defends it at #25; the other way NE #30 into SEA's #8. The pick still lands on NE because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: SEA has the better last five games by 8.6 points a game (NE -8.6, SEA +0.0).
Home field is with NE, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it NE by 1.1 against a market SEA by 3.5: 4.6 points of daylight in NE's favour. The model's total is 37.7 against a line of 39: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model NE by 1.1 · market SEA by 3.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor SEA, but the model still picks NE. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
SEA
Clear advantage
SEA passing ranks #20, NE defends it at #29; the other way NE #23 into SEA's #11.
Rushing game
SEA
Slight advantage
SEA rushing ranks #24, NE defends it at #21; the other way NE #30 into SEA's #16.
Third down & red zone
SEA
Clear advantage
SEA red-zone touchdown rate ranks #15, NE defends it at #25; the other way NE #30 into SEA's #8.
Big plays
=
Even
SEA explosive pass rate ranks #17, NE defends it at #9; the other way NE #29 into SEA's #8.
Pass protection & rush
SEA
Clear advantage
SEA sack rate ranks #24, NE defends it at #32; the other way NE #25 into SEA's #14.
Ball security
SEA
Clear advantage
SEA turnovers / game ranks #16, NE defends it at #31; the other way NE #26 into SEA's #15.
Form (last 5)
SEA
Clear advantage
NE −8.6 per game over the last five, SEA 0.0.
Market
SEA
Clear advantage
Consensus has SEA by 3.5; the model says NE by 1.1.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket SEA by 3.5 · model NE by 1.1
Mkt SEA 3.5
Model NE 1.1
← SEA by 28tieNE by 28 →
13.9% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 39 · model 37.7
Mkt 39
Model 37.7
20 pts4672 pts
1.9% of NFL games finish between 39 and 37.7. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
