The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
56%Buffalo BillsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
BUF by 2.1market MIA by 2.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
49.3 pointsmarket 48.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Buffalo Bills at 56% to win, with the market at MIA by 2.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Tua Tagovailoa starting for Miami Dolphins, and the model prices that in.
BUF has the advantage in rushing: BUF rushing ranks #2, MIA defends it at #10; the other way MIA #31 into BUF's #5.
Home field is with MIA, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it BUF by 2.1 against a market MIA by 2.5: 4.6 points of daylight in BUF's favour. The model's total is 49.3 against a line of 48.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model BUF by 2.1 · market MIA by 2.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
MIA
Slight advantage
MIA passing ranks #12, BUF defends it at #27; the other way BUF #2 into MIA's #9.
Rushing game
BUF
Clear advantage
BUF rushing ranks #2, MIA defends it at #10; the other way MIA #31 into BUF's #5.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
MIA third-down conversion ranks #25, BUF defends it at #29; the other way BUF #6 into MIA's #6.
Big plays
=
Even
BUF explosive pass rate ranks #5, MIA defends it at #2; the other way MIA #30 into BUF's #6.
Pass protection & rush
BUF
Clear advantage
BUF sack rate ranks #1, MIA defends it at #26; the other way MIA #17 into BUF's #21.
Ball security
BUF
Clear advantage
BUF turnovers / game ranks #1, MIA defends it at #20; the other way MIA #15 into BUF's #3.
Form (last 5)
BUF
Slight advantage
MIA +3.0 per game over the last five, BUF +8.4.
Market
MIA
Slight advantage
Consensus has MIA by 2.5; the model says BUF by 2.1.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket MIA by 2.5 · model BUF by 2.1
Mkt MIA 2.5
Model BUF 2.1
← BUF by 28tieMIA by 28 →
9.4% of NFL games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 48.5 · model 49.3
Mkt 48.5
Model 49.3
20 pts4672 pts
2.3% of NFL games finish between 48.5 and 49.3. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
