The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
62%Detroit LionsSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
DET by 4.0market DET by 5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
52.9 pointsmarket 54
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Detroit Lions at 62% to win, with the market at DET by 5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Jared Goff starting for Detroit Lions, and the model prices that in.
DET has the advantage in rushing: DET rushing ranks #3, LAR defends it at #23; the other way LAR #19 into DET's #14.
DET has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: DET third-down conversion ranks #4, LAR defends it at #18; the other way LAR #24 into DET's #1.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours LAR. LAR sack rate ranks #11, DET defends it at #30; the other way DET #8 into LAR's #4. The pick still lands on DET because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with DET, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it DET by 4.0 against a market DET by 5: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 52.9 against a line of 54: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model DET by 4.0 · market DET by 5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
DET
Clear advantage
DET passing ranks #3, LAR defends it at #14; the other way LAR #13 into DET's #7.
Rushing game
DET
Clear advantage
DET rushing ranks #3, LAR defends it at #23; the other way LAR #19 into DET's #14.
Third down & red zone
DET
Clear advantage
DET third-down conversion ranks #4, LAR defends it at #18; the other way LAR #24 into DET's #1.
Big plays
DET
Clear advantage
DET explosive rush rate ranks #3, LAR defends it at #8; the other way LAR #30 into DET's #11.
Pass protection & rush
LAR
Clear advantage
LAR sack rate ranks #11, DET defends it at #30; the other way DET #8 into LAR's #4.
Ball security
LAR
Slight advantage
LAR turnovers / game ranks #6, DET defends it at #12; the other way DET #14 into LAR's #14.
Form (last 5)
=
Even
DET +5.0 per game over the last five, LAR +4.2.
Market
DET
Clear advantage
Consensus has DET by 5; the model says DET by 4.0.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket DET by 5 · model DET by 4.0
Mkt DET 5
Model DET 4.0
← LAR by 28tieDET by 28 →
No whole-number margin falls between 5 and 4.0, so the two numbers differ only on a push at 5. The market is on 5, a number 4.0% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 54 · model 52.9
Mkt 54
Model 52.9
20 pts4672 pts
1.3% of NFL games finish between 54 and 52.9. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
