The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
72%Cincinnati BengalsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
CIN by 8.0market CIN by 8
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
40.7 pointsmarket 40.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Cincinnati Bengals at 72% to win, with the market at CIN by 8.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Joe Burrow starting for Cincinnati Bengals, and the model prices that in.
CIN has the advantage in passing: CIN passing ranks #7, NE defends it at #29; the other way NE #23 into CIN's #15.
CIN has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: CIN third-down conversion ranks #5, NE defends it at #27; the other way NE #30 into CIN's #23.
Form: CIN has the better last five games by 17.2 points a game (CIN +8.6, NE -8.6).
Home field is with CIN, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it CIN by 8.0 against a market CIN by 8: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 40.7 against a line of 40.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model CIN by 8.0 · market CIN by 8
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
CIN
Clear advantage
CIN passing ranks #7, NE defends it at #29; the other way NE #23 into CIN's #15.
Rushing game
CIN
Slight advantage
CIN rushing ranks #18, NE defends it at #21; the other way NE #30 into CIN's #27.
Third down & red zone
CIN
Clear advantage
CIN third-down conversion ranks #5, NE defends it at #27; the other way NE #30 into CIN's #23.
Big plays
NE
Slight advantage
NE explosive rush rate ranks #20, CIN defends it at #17; the other way CIN #25 into NE's #9.
Pass protection & rush
CIN
Slight advantage
CIN sack rate ranks #19, NE defends it at #32; the other way NE #25 into CIN's #27.
Ball security
CIN
Clear advantage
CIN turnovers / game ranks #17, NE defends it at #31; the other way NE #26 into CIN's #10.
Form (last 5)
CIN
Clear advantage
CIN +8.6 per game over the last five, NE −8.6.
Market
CIN
Clear advantage
Consensus has CIN by 8; the model says CIN by 8.0.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket CIN by 8 · model CIN by 8.0
Mkt CIN 8
Model CIN 8.0
← NE by 28tieCIN by 28 →
The two numbers sit together; the disagreement is under half a point. The market is on 8, a number 4.2% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 40.5 · model 40.7
Mkt 40.5
Model 40.7
20 pts4672 pts
Model and market agree on the total to within half a point. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
