The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
58%Green Bay PackersLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
GB by 2.8market PHI by 2
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
51.5 pointsmarket 49.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Green Bay Packers at 58% to win, with the market at PHI by 2.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Jalen Hurts starting for Philadelphia Eagles, and the model prices that in.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours PHI. PHI turnovers / game ranks #2, GB defends it at #6; the other way GB #18 into PHI's #2. The pick still lands on GB because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: PHI has the better last five games by 8.0 points a game (PHI +15.0, GB +7.0).
Neutral site, so no home-field boost either way.
ContextThe model makes it GB by 2.8 against a market PHI by 2: 4.8 points of daylight in GB's favour. The model's total is 51.5 against a line of 49.5: 2.0 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model GB by 2.8 · market PHI by 2
ⓘMost of these areas favor PHI, but the model still picks GB. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
PHI
Slight advantage
PHI passing ranks #6, GB defends it at #5; the other way GB #9 into PHI's #2.
Rushing game
PHI
Clear advantage
PHI rushing ranks #4, GB defends it at #11; the other way GB #9 into PHI's #1.
Third down & red zone
PHI
Slight advantage
PHI red-zone touchdown rate ranks #11, GB defends it at #16; the other way GB #12 into PHI's #6.
Big plays
=
Even
PHI explosive pass rate ranks #6, GB defends it at #10; the other way GB #2 into PHI's #1.
Pass protection & rush
GB
Clear advantage
GB sack rate ranks #3, PHI defends it at #10; the other way PHI #31 into GB's #13.
Ball security
PHI
Clear advantage
PHI turnovers / game ranks #2, GB defends it at #6; the other way GB #18 into PHI's #2.
Form (last 5)
PHI
Clear advantage
PHI +15.0 per game over the last five, GB +7.0.
Market
PHI
Slight advantage
Consensus has PHI by 2; the model says GB by 2.8.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket PHI by 2 · model GB by 2.8
Mkt PHI 2
Model GB 2.8
← GB by 28tiePHI by 28 →
7.1% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 2, a number 4.6% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 49.5 · model 51.5
Mkt 49.5
Model 51.5
20 pts4672 pts
6.5% of NFL games finish between 49.5 and 51.5. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
