The read
The clearest mismatch is the third down & red zone: NO third-down conversion ranks #17, LV defends it at #31; the other way LV #28 into NO's #4. The model lands on NO by 4.8 against a market NO by 3, so the spread lean is NO by 1.8 points — a lean for reading the game, not the call itself. On the total the model sees 41.4 against 43.5.
Who has the edge
Where the lines sit Every NFL final since 2012, counted by margin and by total. The dashed lines are the market's number and the model's; the bright bars between them are the share of history that landed in the gap — the games the two numbers actually disagree about. Key numbers (the most common margins) are the pale bars.
2.3% of NFL games land between the two numbers — the zone where the model’s side covers and the market’s does not. The market is on 3, a number 14.4% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.4%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
5.2% of NFL games finish between 43.5 and 41.4 — the games where the under cashes on the model’s read but not by much. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
Sharp read Sharp money cannot be seen; who moved first can. Pinnacle and the other market makers move on the bets they respect and retail books copy them hours later. This tracks the market maker's number against retail, its move since the open, and whether the market followed. Recording started September 2026 and it is graded on its own — it is not a pick until a season of results says it should be.
— tap to see the market-maker read ↓↑
- Opened
- NO -3
- Pinnacle now
- NO -3.25
- Retail now
- NO -3
- Moves
- 8 across 7 books · 1 led
- Opened
- 45
- Pinnacle now
- 43.8
- Retail now
- 43.5
- Moves
- 22 across 7 books · 2 led
First sharp move Mon 1:20 AM: 44 → 43, 0 books followed within six hours; retail was still 44.
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.