Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Minnesota Vikings
2-0
Model predicts
22 – 14
Sun, Sep 27, 4:05 PM ET
Raymond James Stadium · 87° · Intermittent clouds
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
0-2
Spread MIN -1.5 (opened TB -1.5)Total 42.5Moneyline MIN -124 · TB +1057 books · best MIN -117 pinnacle · TB +106 fanduel
Save imageSquare
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Strong
MIN -124
71%
model margin MIN by 7.4
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
MIN -1.5
53%
5.9 pts from the number · best MIN -1 at bovada
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean +
Under 42.5
53%
model total 36.3 · best under 43 at pinnacle

The read

A quarterback change matters here: Baker Mayfield is starting for Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The clearest mismatch is the third down & red zone: TB third-down conversion ranks #11, MIN defends it at #3; the other way MIN #31 into TB's #13. The model lands on MIN by 7.4 against a market MIN by 1.5, so the spread lean is MIN by 5.9 points — a lean for reading the game, not the call itself. On the total the model sees 36.3 against 42.5.

Who has the edge

Model: MIN by 7.4 · market MIN by 1.5
Passing game
Even
—
MIN passing ranks #29, TB defends it at #20; the other way TB #15 into MIN's #2.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Even
—
TB rushing ranks #24, MIN defends it at #13; the other way MIN #18 into TB's #5.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Slight edge
MIN
TB third-down conversion ranks #11, MIN defends it at #3; the other way MIN #31 into TB's #13.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
MIN
TB −5.0 per game over the last five, MIN +11.5.
context · not in the margin
Market
Slight edge
MIN
Consensus has MIN by 1.5; the model says MIN by 7.4.
context · not in the margin

Where the lines sit Every NFL final since 2012, counted by margin and by total. The dashed lines are the market's number and the model's; the bright bars between them are the share of history that landed in the gap — the games the two numbers actually disagree about. Key numbers (the most common margins) are the pale bars.

3,862 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket MIN by 1.5 · model MIN by 7.4
Mkt MIN 1.5
Model MIN 7.4
-28028

20.7% of NFL games land between the two numbers — the zone where the model’s side covers and the market’s does not. The model’s number is across the key numbers 3 and 7 and 6. Most common margins: 3 (14.4%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).

Totalmarket 42.5 · model 36.3
Mkt 42.5
Model 36.3
204672

16.3% of NFL games finish between 42.5 and 36.3 — the games where the under cashes on the model’s read but not by much. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.

Sharp read Sharp money cannot be seen; who moved first can. Pinnacle and the other market makers move on the bets they respect and retail books copy them hours later. This tracks the market maker's number against retail, its move since the open, and whether the market followed. Recording started September 2026 and it is graded on its own — it is not a pick until a season of results says it should be.

— tap to see the market-maker read ↓
Spread
Sharp side: TB · model disagrees
Opened
TB -1.5
Pinnacle now
MIN -1.75(+0.5)
Retail now
MIN -1.5
Moves
25 across 7 books · 6 led

First sharp move Mon 1:27 PM: MIN -2.5 → MIN -1.5, 2 books followed within six hours; retail was still MIN -2.5.

Total
Sharp side: the under · model agrees
Opened
46
Pinnacle now
42.8(-1)
Retail now
42.5
Moves
19 across 7 books · 6 led

First sharp move Sun 11:22 PM: 44.5 → 44, 0 books followed within six hours; retail was still 44.5.

Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.