Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Arizona Cardinals
1-1
Model predicts
18 – 30
Sun, Sep 27, 4:05 PM ET
Levi's Stadium · 68° · 62% precip · Mostly cloudy
San Francisco 49ers
2-0
Spread SF -8.5 (opened SF -11.5)Total 47.5Moneyline ARI +340 · SF -4507 books · best ARI +385 fanduel · SF -388 pinnacle
Save imageSquare
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Strong
SF -450
80%
model margin SF by 11.5
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean
SF -8.5
51%
3.0 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Slight
Over 47.5
50%
model total 47.7

The read

A quarterback change matters here: Jacoby Brissett is starting for Arizona Cardinals. The clearest mismatch is the third down & red zone: SF third-down conversion ranks #1, ARI defends it at #29; the other way ARI #9 into SF's #14. The model lands on SF by 11.5 against a market SF by 8.5, so the spread lean is SF by 3.0 points — a lean for reading the game, not the call itself.

Who has the edge

Model: SF by 11.5 · market SF by 8.5
Passing game
Slight edge
SF
SF passing ranks #8, ARI defends it at #26; the other way ARI #19 into SF's #25.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Clear edge
SF
SF rushing ranks #13, ARI defends it at #25; the other way ARI #29 into SF's #23.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Clear edge
SF
SF third-down conversion ranks #1, ARI defends it at #29; the other way ARI #9 into SF's #14.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
SF
SF +21.0 per game over the last five, ARI −6.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
Clear edge
SF
Consensus has SF by 8.5; the model says SF by 11.5.
context · not in the margin

Where the lines sit Every NFL final since 2012, counted by margin and by total. The dashed lines are the market's number and the model's; the bright bars between them are the share of history that landed in the gap — the games the two numbers actually disagree about. Key numbers (the most common margins) are the pale bars.

3,862 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket SF by 8.5 · model SF by 11.5
Mkt SF 8.5
Model SF 11.5
-28028

5.0% of NFL games land between the two numbers — the zone where the model’s side covers and the market’s does not. Most common margins: 3 (14.4%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).

Totalmarket 47.5 · model 47.7
Mkt 47.5
Model 47.7
204672

Model and market agree on the total to within half a point. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.

Sharp read Sharp money cannot be seen; who moved first can. Pinnacle and the other market makers move on the bets they respect and retail books copy them hours later. This tracks the market maker's number against retail, its move since the open, and whether the market followed. Recording started September 2026 and it is graded on its own — it is not a pick until a season of results says it should be.

— tap to see the market-maker read ↓
Spread
No sharp side yet
Opened
SF -8.5
Pinnacle now
SF -8.75
Retail now
SF -8.5
Moves
4 across 7 books · 1 led

First sharp move Mon 10:58 PM: SF -9 → SF -8.5, 0 books followed within six hours; retail was still SF -8.5.

Total
No sharp side yet
Opened
48
Pinnacle now
47.8
Retail now
47.5
Moves
6 across 7 books · 2 led

Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.