Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Seattle Seahawks
2-0
Model predicts
26 – 14
Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET
Northwest Stadium · 67° · 13 mph wind · Partly sunny
Washington Commanders
0-2
Spread SEA -7.5 (opened SEA -3.5)Total 40.5Moneyline SEA -360 · WSH +2857 books · best SEA -347 pinnacle · WSH +310 fanduel
Save imageSquare
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Strong
SEA -360
81%
model margin SEA by 11.6
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
SEA -7.5
52%
4.1 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean
Under 40.5
50%
model total 39.4

The read

A quarterback change matters here: Josh Johnson is starting for Washington Commanders. The clearest mismatch is the passing game: SEA passing ranks #7, WSH defends it at #30; the other way WSH #17 into SEA's #6. The model lands on SEA by 11.6 against a market SEA by 7.5, so the spread lean is SEA by 4.1 points — a lean for reading the game, not the call itself.

Who has the edge

Model: SEA by 11.6 · market SEA by 7.5
Passing game
Clear edge
SEA
SEA passing ranks #7, WSH defends it at #30; the other way WSH #17 into SEA's #6.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Clear edge
SEA
SEA rushing ranks #21, WSH defends it at #28; the other way WSH #11 into SEA's #1.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Clear edge
SEA
SEA third-down conversion ranks #16, WSH defends it at #23; the other way WSH #21 into SEA's #1.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
SEA
WSH −9.5 per game over the last five, SEA +13.5.
context · not in the margin
Market
Clear edge
SEA
Consensus has SEA by 7.5; the model says SEA by 11.6.
context · not in the margin

Where the lines sit Every NFL final since 2012, counted by margin and by total. The dashed lines are the market's number and the model's; the bright bars between them are the share of history that landed in the gap — the games the two numbers actually disagree about. Key numbers (the most common margins) are the pale bars.

3,862 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket SEA by 7.5 · model SEA by 11.6
Mkt SEA 7.5
Model SEA 11.6
-28028

5.4% of NFL games land between the two numbers — the zone where the model’s side covers and the market’s does not. Most common margins: 3 (14.4%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).

Totalmarket 40.5 · model 39.4
Mkt 40.5
Model 39.4
204672

3.5% of NFL games finish between 40.5 and 39.4 — the games where the under cashes on the model’s read but not by much. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.

Sharp read Sharp money cannot be seen; who moved first can. Pinnacle and the other market makers move on the bets they respect and retail books copy them hours later. This tracks the market maker's number against retail, its move since the open, and whether the market followed. Recording started September 2026 and it is graded on its own — it is not a pick until a season of results says it should be.

— tap to see the market-maker read ↓
Spread
Sharp side: SEA · model agrees
Opened
SEA -2
Pinnacle now
SEA -7.5(-3)
Retail now
SEA -7.5
Moves
21 across 7 books · 4 led

First sharp move Sun 8:04 PM: SEA -2.5 → SEA -6, 1 book followed within six hours; retail was still SEA -2.

Total
Sharp side: the under · model agrees
Opened
42
Pinnacle now
40.3(-0.8)
Retail now
40.5
Moves
15 across 7 books · 5 led

First sharp move Sun 8:04 PM: 41.5 → 41, 2 books followed within six hours; retail was still 42.Steam Sun 8:04 PM

Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.