Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Cincinnati Bengals
2-0
Model predicts
20 – 20
Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET
Acrisure Stadium · 67° · 11 mph wind · Intermittent clouds
Pittsburgh Steelers
1-1
Spread CIN -3.5 (opened CIN -1.5)Total 42.5Moneyline CIN -190 · PIT +1607 books · best CIN -185 bovada · PIT +165 betonlineag
Save imageSquare
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Lean
PIT +160
50%
model margin PIT by 0.1
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
PIT +3.5
52%
3.6 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean
Under 42.5
51%
model total 40.5 · best under 43 at pinnacle

The read

A quarterback change matters here: Aaron Rodgers is starting for Pittsburgh Steelers. The clearest mismatch is the passing game: PIT passing ranks #22, CIN defends it at #28; the other way CIN #25 into PIT's #16. The model lands on PIT by 0.1 against a market CIN by 3.5, so the spread lean is PIT by 3.6 points — a lean for reading the game, not the call itself. On the total the model sees 40.5 against 42.5.

Who has the edge

Model: PIT by 0.1 · market CIN by 3.5
Passing game
Clear edge
PIT
PIT passing ranks #22, CIN defends it at #28; the other way CIN #25 into PIT's #16.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Even
—
PIT rushing ranks #7, CIN defends it at #31; the other way CIN #5 into PIT's #26.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Even
—
CIN third-down conversion ranks #5, PIT defends it at #26; the other way PIT #20 into CIN's #27.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
CIN
PIT −5.0 per game over the last five, CIN +10.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
Clear edge
CIN
Consensus has CIN by 3.5; the model says PIT by 0.1.
context · not in the margin

Where the lines sit Every NFL final since 2012, counted by margin and by total. The dashed lines are the market's number and the model's; the bright bars between them are the share of history that landed in the gap — the games the two numbers actually disagree about. Key numbers (the most common margins) are the pale bars.

3,862 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket CIN by 3.5 · model PIT by 0.1
Mkt CIN 3.5
Model PIT 0.1
-28028

11.6% of NFL games land between the two numbers — the zone where the model’s side covers and the market’s does not. The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (14.4%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).

Totalmarket 42.5 · model 40.5
Mkt 42.5
Model 40.5
204672

5.1% of NFL games finish between 42.5 and 40.5 — the games where the under cashes on the model’s read but not by much. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.

Sharp read Sharp money cannot be seen; who moved first can. Pinnacle and the other market makers move on the bets they respect and retail books copy them hours later. This tracks the market maker's number against retail, its move since the open, and whether the market followed. Recording started September 2026 and it is graded on its own — it is not a pick until a season of results says it should be.

— tap to see the market-maker read ↓
Spread
No sharp side yet
Opened
CIN -2.5
Pinnacle now
CIN -3.5(-0.3)
Retail now
CIN -3.5
Moves
3 across 7 books · 2 led

First sharp move Tue 9:32 AM: CIN -3 → CIN -3.5, 0 books followed within six hours; retail was still CIN -3.5.

Total
Sharp side: the under · model agrees
Opened
46
Pinnacle now
42.8(-0.5)
Retail now
42.5
Moves
9 across 7 books · 2 led

First sharp move Mon 8:32 AM: 43.5 → 43, 0 books followed within six hours; retail was still 43.5.

Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.