Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Tennessee Titans
0-2
Model predicts
13 – 20
Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET
MetLife Stadium · 61° · 24 mph wind · 74% precip · Rain
New York Giants
1-1
Spread NYG -2.5 (opened NYG -3)Total 38.5Moneyline TEN +118 · NYG -1387 books · best TEN +120 bovada · NYG -130 draftkings
Save imageSquare
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Solid
NYG -138
70%
model margin NYG by 7.1
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
NYG -2.5
52%
4.6 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean +
Under 38.5
52%
model total 33.6

The read

The clearest mismatch is the passing game: NYG passing ranks #16, TEN defends it at #29; the other way TEN #31 into NYG's #17. The model lands on NYG by 7.1 against a market NYG by 2.5, so the spread lean is NYG by 4.6 points — a lean for reading the game, not the call itself. On the total the model sees 33.6 against 38.5.

Who has the edge

Model: NYG by 7.1 · market NYG by 2.5
Passing game
Clear edge
NYG
NYG passing ranks #16, TEN defends it at #29; the other way TEN #31 into NYG's #17.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Slight edge
NYG
NYG rushing ranks #10, TEN defends it at #22; the other way TEN #26 into NYG's #32.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Even
—
NYG third-down conversion ranks #15, TEN defends it at #19; the other way TEN #32 into NYG's #15.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Even
—
NYG −7.0 per game over the last five, TEN −8.5.
context · not in the margin
Market
Slight edge
NYG
Consensus has NYG by 2.5; the model says NYG by 7.1.
context · not in the margin

Where the lines sit Every NFL final since 2012, counted by margin and by total. The dashed lines are the market's number and the model's; the bright bars between them are the share of history that landed in the gap — the games the two numbers actually disagree about. Key numbers (the most common margins) are the pale bars.

3,862 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket NYG by 2.5 · model NYG by 7.1
Mkt NYG 2.5
Model NYG 7.1
-28028

20.0% of NFL games land between the two numbers — the zone where the model’s side covers and the market’s does not. The model’s number is across the key numbers 3 and 7 and 6. Most common margins: 3 (14.4%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).

Totalmarket 38.5 · model 33.6
Mkt 38.5
Model 33.6
204672

12.1% of NFL games finish between 38.5 and 33.6 — the games where the under cashes on the model’s read but not by much. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.

Sharp read Sharp money cannot be seen; who moved first can. Pinnacle and the other market makers move on the bets they respect and retail books copy them hours later. This tracks the market maker's number against retail, its move since the open, and whether the market followed. Recording started September 2026 and it is graded on its own — it is not a pick until a season of results says it should be.

— tap to see the market-maker read ↓
Spread
Sharp side: TEN · model disagrees
Opened
NYG -5.5
Pinnacle now
NYG -2.5(-2)
Retail now
NYG -2.5
Moves
24 across 7 books · 8 led

First sharp move Sun 11:22 PM: NYG -6 → NYG -6.5, 0 books followed within six hours; retail was still NYG -6.

Total
Sharp side: the under · model agrees
Opened
43
Pinnacle now
38.3(-3)
Retail now
38.5
Moves
23 across 7 books · 16 led

First sharp move Tue 4:05 PM: 43 → 40.5, 5 books followed within six hours; retail was still 40.5.

Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.