Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Los Angeles Chargers
0-2
Model predicts
15 – 28
Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET
Highmark Stadium · 67° · 15 mph wind · Intermittent clouds
Buffalo Bills
2-0
Spread BUF -7.5 (opened BUF -3)Total 50Moneyline LAC +275 · BUF -3457 books · best LAC +295 fanduel · BUF -337 pinnacle
Save imageSquare
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Strong
BUF -345
83%
model margin BUF by 13.0
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
BUF -7.5
52%
5.5 pts from the number · best BUF -7 at betmgm
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean +
Under 50
53%
model total 43.3 · best under 50.5 at draftkings

The read

A quarterback change matters here: Justin Herbert is starting for Los Angeles Chargers. The clearest mismatch is the passing game: BUF passing ranks #4, LAC defends it at #8; the other way LAC #24 into BUF's #10. The model lands on BUF by 13.0 against a market BUF by 7.5, so the spread lean is BUF by 5.5 points — a lean for reading the game, not the call itself. On the total the model sees 43.3 against 50.

Who has the edge

Model: BUF by 13.0 · market BUF by 7.5
Passing game
Clear edge
BUF
BUF passing ranks #4, LAC defends it at #8; the other way LAC #24 into BUF's #10.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Even
—
LAC rushing ranks #23, BUF defends it at #29; the other way BUF #1 into LAC's #3.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Even
—
LAC third-down conversion ranks #4, BUF defends it at #24; the other way BUF #3 into LAC's #5.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
BUF
BUF +7.5 per game over the last five, LAC −12.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
Clear edge
BUF
Consensus has BUF by 7.5; the model says BUF by 13.0.
context · not in the margin

Where the lines sit Every NFL final since 2012, counted by margin and by total. The dashed lines are the market's number and the model's; the bright bars between them are the share of history that landed in the gap — the games the two numbers actually disagree about. Key numbers (the most common margins) are the pale bars.

3,862 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket BUF by 7.5 · model BUF by 13.0
Mkt BUF 7.5
Model BUF 13.0
-28028

8.7% of NFL games land between the two numbers — the zone where the model’s side covers and the market’s does not. Most common margins: 3 (14.4%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).

Totalmarket 50 · model 43.3
Mkt 50
Model 43.3
204672

17.1% of NFL games finish between 50 and 43.3 — the games where the under cashes on the model’s read but not by much. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.

Sharp read Sharp money cannot be seen; who moved first can. Pinnacle and the other market makers move on the bets they respect and retail books copy them hours later. This tracks the market maker's number against retail, its move since the open, and whether the market followed. Recording started September 2026 and it is graded on its own — it is not a pick until a season of results says it should be.

— tap to see the market-maker read ↓
Spread
Sharp side: BUF · model agrees
Opened
BUF -4.5
Pinnacle now
BUF -7.5(+0.5)
Retail now
BUF -7.5
Moves
7 across 7 books · 3 led

First sharp move Mon 10:58 PM: BUF -7 → BUF -7.5, 0 books followed within six hours; retail was still BUF -7.

Total
No sharp side yet
Opened
50
Pinnacle now
50
Retail now
50
Moves
3 across 7 books

First sharp move Mon 8:32 AM: 50 → 51, 0 books followed within six hours; retail was still 50.5.

Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.