Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Atlanta Falcons
1-2
35
at
Thu, Sep 24, 8:15 PM ET
Lambeau Field · 62°
Final
Green Bay Packers
1-2
14
Spread GB -4.5 (opened GB -7.5)Total 43.5Moneyline ATL +205 · GB -2477 books · best ATL +210 betmgm · GB -238 draftkings
Save imageSquare
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.✗
GB -247
71%
model margin GB by 7.5
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean
GB -4.5
51%
3.0 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Slight
Over 43.5
50%
model total 44.2

The read

The clearest mismatch is the passing game: GB passing ranks #1, ATL defends it at #13; the other way ATL #21 into GB's #22. The model lands on GB by 7.5 against a market GB by 4.5, so the spread lean is GB by 3.0 points — a lean for reading the game, not the call itself.

Who has the edge

Model: GB by 7.5 · market GB by 4.5
Passing game
Slight edge
GB
GB passing ranks #1, ATL defends it at #13; the other way ATL #21 into GB's #22.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Even
—
GB rushing ranks #22, ATL defends it at #24; the other way ATL #20 into GB's #17.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Slight edge
GB
GB third-down conversion ranks #2, ATL defends it at #17; the other way ATL #29 into GB's #20.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Slight edge
ATL
GB −11.7 per game over the last five, ATL −5.7.
context · not in the margin
Market
Clear edge
GB
Consensus has GB by 4.5; the model says GB by 7.5.
context · not in the margin

Where the lines sit Every NFL final since 2012, counted by margin and by total. The dashed lines are the market's number and the model's; the bright bars between them are the share of history that landed in the gap — the games the two numbers actually disagree about. Key numbers (the most common margins) are the pale bars.

3,862 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket GB by 4.5 · model GB by 7.5
Mkt GB 4.5
Model GB 7.5
-28028

10.0% of NFL games land between the two numbers — the zone where the model’s side covers and the market’s does not. The model’s number is across the key numbers 7 and 6. Most common margins: 3 (14.4%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).

Totalmarket 43.5 · model 44.2
Mkt 43.5
Model 44.2
204672

3.9% of NFL games finish between 43.5 and 44.2 — the games where the over cashes on the model’s read but not by much. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.

Sharp read Sharp money cannot be seen; who moved first can. Pinnacle and the other market makers move on the bets they respect and retail books copy them hours later. This tracks the market maker's number against retail, its move since the open, and whether the market followed. Recording started September 2026 and it is graded on its own — it is not a pick until a season of results says it should be.

— tap to see the market-maker read ↓
Spread
Sharp side: ATL · model disagrees✓
Opened
GB -6
Pinnacle now
GB -4.5(-2.8)
Retail now
GB -4.5
Moves
47 across 7 books · 4 led

First sharp move Mon 1:20 PM: GB -7.5 → GB -7, 4 books followed within six hours; retail was still GB -7.

Total
Sharp side: the under · model disagrees✗
Opened
46
Pinnacle now
43.3(-1)
Retail now
43.5
Moves
35 across 7 books · 4 led

First sharp move Mon 1:26 PM: 44.5 → 44, 0 books followed within six hours; retail was still 44.5.Steam Wed 9:26 AM

Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.