The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
71%Los Angeles RamsStrong✓
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
LAR by 7.6market LAR by 6.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
47.2 pointsmarket 47.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Los Angeles Rams at 71% to win, with the market at LAR by 6.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Matthew Stafford starting for Los Angeles Rams, and the model prices that in.
LAR has the advantage in big plays: LAR explosive rush rate ranks #12, NYG defends it at #29; the other way NYG #24 into LAR's #3.
LAR has the advantage in rushing: LAR rushing ranks #11, NYG defends it at #25; the other way NYG #22 into LAR's #10.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours NYG. NYG turnovers / game ranks #20, LAR defends it at #24; the other way LAR #28 into NYG's #5. The pick still lands on LAR because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: LAR has 3 more days since its last game (LAR 11d, NYG 8d).
Home field is with LAR, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it LAR by 7.6 against a market LAR by 6.5: 1.1 points of daylight in LAR's favour. The model's total is 47.2 against a line of 47.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model LAR by 7.6 · market LAR by 6.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
LAR
Slight advantage
LAR passing ranks #16, NYG defends it at #12; the other way NYG #18 into LAR's #2.
Rushing game
LAR
Clear advantage
LAR rushing ranks #11, NYG defends it at #25; the other way NYG #22 into LAR's #10.
Third down & red zone
LAR
Clear advantage
LAR third-down conversion ranks #10, NYG defends it at #30; the other way NYG #9 into LAR's #7.
Big plays
LAR
Clear advantage
LAR explosive rush rate ranks #12, NYG defends it at #29; the other way NYG #24 into LAR's #3.
Pass protection & rush
LAR
Clear advantage
LAR sack rate ranks #4, NYG defends it at #32; the other way NYG #29 into LAR's #21.
Ball security
NYG
Clear advantage
NYG turnovers / game ranks #20, LAR defends it at #24; the other way LAR #28 into NYG's #5.
Form (last 5)
=
Even
LAR +0.5 per game over the last five, NYG +0.8.
Market
LAR
Clear advantage
Consensus has LAR by 6.5; the model says LAR by 7.6.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket LAR by 6.5 · model LAR by 7.6
Mkt LAR 6.5
Model LAR 7.6
← NYG by 28tieLAR by 28 →
4.5% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 7. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 47.5 · model 47.2
Mkt 47.5
Model 47.2
20 pts4672 pts
Model and market agree on the total to within half a point. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
Sharp read
tap to open+
Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
Spread
Sharp side: NYGModel disagrees
Opened
LAR -9.5
→
Market maker now
LAR -6.5
▼ 0.8 since open
→
Retail now
LAR -6.5
in line
17 moves7 books2 led
Sat, Sep 19, 1:20 PM first sharp move: LAR -7 → LAR -7.5
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
