The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
67%Los Angeles ChargersSolid✗
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
LAC by 6.1market LAC by 6.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
35.4 pointsmarket 43.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Los Angeles Chargers at 67% to win, with the market at LAC by 6.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Justin Herbert starting for Los Angeles Chargers, and the model prices that in.
LAC has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: LAC red-zone touchdown rate ranks #15, LV defends it at #29; the other way LV #22 into LAC's #14.
Counterpoint: passing favours LV. LV passing ranks #11, LAC defends it at #19; the other way LAC #29 into LV's #5. The pick still lands on LAC because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: LV has the better last five games by 17.5 points a game (LAC -9.8, LV +7.8).
Home field is with LAC, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it LAC by 6.1 against a market LAC by 6.5: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 35.4 against a line of 43.5: 8.1 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model LAC by 6.1 · market LAC by 6.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor LV, but the model still picks LAC. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
LV
Clear advantage
LV passing ranks #11, LAC defends it at #19; the other way LAC #29 into LV's #5.
Rushing game
=
Even
LV rushing ranks #29, LAC defends it at #15; the other way LAC #26 into LV's #7.
Third down & red zone
LAC
Slight advantage
LAC red-zone touchdown rate ranks #15, LV defends it at #29; the other way LV #22 into LAC's #14.
Big plays
=
Even
LAC explosive rush rate ranks #14, LV defends it at #28; the other way LV #20 into LAC's #13.
Pass protection & rush
LV
Clear advantage
LV sack rate ranks #3, LAC defends it at #7; the other way LAC #26 into LV's #5.
Ball security
LV
Clear advantage
LV turnovers / game ranks #17, LAC defends it at #3; the other way LAC #30 into LV's #1.
Form (last 5)
LV
Clear advantage
LAC −9.8 per game over the last five, LV +7.8.
Market
LAC
Clear advantage
Consensus has LAC by 6.5; the model says LAC by 6.1.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket LAC by 6.5 · model LAC by 6.1
Mkt LAC 6.5
Model LAC 6.1
← LV by 28tieLAC by 28 →
The two numbers sit together; the disagreement is under half a point. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 43.5 · model 35.4
Mkt 43.5
Model 35.4
20 pts4672 pts
22.5% of NFL games finish between 43.5 and 35.4. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
Sharp read
tap to open+
Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
Spread
No sharp side yet
Opened
LAC -9.5
→
Market maker now
LAC -6.75
▼ 0.3 since open
→
Retail now
LAC -6.5
in line
8 moves7 books1 led
Wed, Sep 16, 1:20 AM first sharp move: LAC -7 → LAC -6.5
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still LAC -9.5 at that point
Total
Sharp side: the underModel agrees
Opened
42.5
→
Market maker now
43.5
▼ 0.5 since open
→
Retail now
43.5
in line
3 moves7 books0 led
Fri, Sep 18, 1:20 PM first sharp move: 44 → 43
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still 42.5 at that point
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
