The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
75%Baltimore RavensStrong✗
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
BAL by 9.2market BAL by 8.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
46.8 pointsmarket 45.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Baltimore Ravens at 75% to win, with the market at BAL by 8.5.
BAL has the advantage in passing: BAL passing ranks #2, NO defends it at #27; the other way NO #20 into BAL's #7.
BAL has the advantage in big plays: BAL explosive rush rate ranks #7, NO defends it at #30; the other way NO #32 into BAL's #19.
Form: BAL has the better last five games by 10.8 points a game (BAL +5.0, NO -5.8).
Home field is with BAL, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it BAL by 9.2 against a market BAL by 8.5: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 46.8 against a line of 45.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model BAL by 9.2 · market BAL by 8.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
BAL
Clear advantage
BAL passing ranks #2, NO defends it at #27; the other way NO #20 into BAL's #7.
Rushing game
BAL
Clear advantage
BAL rushing ranks #6, NO defends it at #32; the other way NO #17 into BAL's #21.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
NO third-down conversion ranks #5, BAL defends it at #12; the other way BAL #26 into NO's #26.
Big plays
BAL
Clear advantage
BAL explosive rush rate ranks #7, NO defends it at #30; the other way NO #32 into BAL's #19.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
NO sack rate ranks #18, BAL defends it at #24; the other way BAL #17 into NO's #18.
Ball security
BAL
Clear advantage
BAL turnovers / game ranks #4, NO defends it at #29; the other way NO #29 into BAL's #11.
Form (last 5)
BAL
Clear advantage
BAL +5.0 per game over the last five, NO −5.8.
Market
BAL
Clear advantage
Consensus has BAL by 8.5; the model says BAL by 9.2.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket BAL by 8.5 · model BAL by 9.2
Mkt BAL 8.5
Model BAL 9.2
← NO by 28tieBAL by 28 →
1.0% of NFL games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 45.5 · model 46.8
Mkt 45.5
Model 46.8
20 pts4672 pts
2.4% of NFL games finish between 45.5 and 46.8. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
Sharp read
tap to open+
Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
