The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
68%Buffalo BillsSolid✓
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
BUF by 6.5market BUF by 5.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
57.0 pointsmarket 55
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Buffalo Bills at 68% to win, with the market at BUF by 5.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Jared Goff starting for Detroit Lions, and the model prices that in.
BUF has the advantage in big plays: BUF explosive pass rate ranks #1, DET defends it at #27; the other way DET #22 into BUF's #28.
BUF has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: BUF third-down conversion ranks #2, DET defends it at #31; the other way DET #14 into BUF's #20.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours DET. DET sack rate ranks #10, BUF defends it at #16; the other way BUF #19 into DET's #6. The pick still lands on BUF because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: BUF has the better last five games by 7.0 points a game (BUF +5.0, DET -2.0).
Home field is with BUF, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it BUF by 6.5 against a market BUF by 5.5: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 57.0 against a line of 55: 2.0 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model BUF by 6.5 · market BUF by 5.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
BUF
Slight advantage
BUF passing ranks #3, DET defends it at #29; the other way DET #6 into BUF's #26.
Rushing game
BUF
Clear advantage
BUF rushing ranks #4, DET defends it at #27; the other way DET #14 into BUF's #22.
Third down & red zone
BUF
Clear advantage
BUF third-down conversion ranks #2, DET defends it at #31; the other way DET #14 into BUF's #20.
Big plays
BUF
Clear advantage
BUF explosive pass rate ranks #1, DET defends it at #27; the other way DET #22 into BUF's #28.
Pass protection & rush
DET
Clear advantage
DET sack rate ranks #10, BUF defends it at #16; the other way BUF #19 into DET's #6.
Ball security
DET
Clear advantage
DET turnovers / game ranks #1, BUF defends it at #12; the other way BUF #25 into DET's #19.
Form (last 5)
BUF
Clear advantage
BUF +5.0 per game over the last five, DET −2.0.
Market
BUF
Clear advantage
Consensus has BUF by 5.5; the model says BUF by 6.5.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket BUF by 5.5 · model BUF by 6.5
Mkt BUF 5.5
Model BUF 6.5
← DET by 28tieBUF by 28 →
3.7% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 6. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 55 · model 57.0
Mkt 55
Model 57.0
20 pts4672 pts
3.3% of NFL games finish between 55 and 57.0. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
Sharp read
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Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
